NEM Overview: Wednesday 5 August 2026
NEM-wide prices sit in a moderate band this morning, with NSW leading at $207.51/MWh against total demand of 10,056 MW, followed by QLD at $189.72/MWh (7,003 MW), VIC at $176.79/MWh (6,602 MW), SA at $170.83/MWh (1,585 MW), TAS at $158.95/MWh (1,301 MW) and WA at $151.75/MWh. The NSW-TAS spread of roughly $49/MWh is unremarkable for a winter morning, and the regional price band overall is tight enough that no single region is dislocated from the pack. Cold overnight conditions are evident across the eastern states — NSW at 6.8°C, VIC at 5.6°C, TAS at 5.2°C — driving heating demand and supporting the firmer price levels, while QLD sits milder at 11°C with heavy cloud cover (99%) suppressing solar potential this morning.
Generation mix shows coal continues to underpin the two largest regions: NSW black coal is running at 6,701 MW and VIC brown coal at 4,728 MW, both well above other fuel types in their respective regions. NSW hydro (1,367 MW) and battery output (756 MW) are notable contributors alongside 428 MW of wind. QLD black coal sits at 6,165 MW with gas OCGT and battery output at 276 MW and 656 MW respectively. SA's mix is more balanced across gas (1,163 MW combined OCGT/CCGT), wind (457 MW) and battery (125 MW), while TAS remains hydro-dominated at 1,350 MW alongside 82 MW of wind. Solar is negligible across all regions at this hour, consistent with pre-dawn/early morning timing.
Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 37.1% on the platform's aggregate score, but regional carbon intensity and renewable share diverge sharply: TAS leads at 87.34% renewable with carbon intensity of just 0.0823 tCO2/MWh, SA follows at 33.36% (0.3834 tCO2/MWh), NSW at 27.56% (0.637 tCO2/MWh), QLD at 16.26% (0.7287 tCO2/MWh) and VIC lowest at 15.27% renewable with the highest carbon intensity at 0.9723 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress reads elevated at 75.8, consistent with cold-driven demand and coal plant running near capacity in NSW and QLD. Interconnector flows show VIC1-NSW1 exporting 874 MW into NSW and QLD1 exporting 617 MW into NSW, reflecting NSW's higher price pulling supply from neighbouring regions; T-V-MNSP1 (Basslink) is flowing 411 MW from TAS into VIC.
On notices, an active inter-regional transfer constraint (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) has been invoked on the NSW-QLD interconnector since 3 August to manage power system security in NSW and remains in force — worth monitoring for any impact on NSW-QLD price convergence today. No active market interventions or directions are currently in place; the SA intervention event and Torrens Island directions from 1-2 August have both been cancelled. Expect coal and hydro to remain the primary balancing fuels through the morning peak as cold temperatures persist across NSW, VIC and TAS, with solar contribution ramping modestly from mid-morning given today's forecast cloud cover of 22-92% across regions.