NEM Overview: Sunday 2 August 2026

Spot prices show a wide spread across the NEM this morning, with VIC1 sitting at just $10.50/MWh while WA1 (not part of the NEM proper but tracked for context) trades at $90.90/MWh — a near ninefold difference. Within the interconnected NEM, SA1 is the highest-priced region at $80.44/MWh, followed by NSW1 ($66.03/MWh) and QLD1 ($65.96/MWh), with TAS1 in between at $30.57/MWh. VIC1's low price reflects strong wind output (2,929 MW) against brown coal baseload (3,778 MW), pushing the region into surplus and exporting heavily — VIC1-NSW1 flow sits at 748.84 MW, near its 748.84 MW export limit and currently binding. V-S-MNSP1 (Vic-SA) is also binding at 166.52 MW, right at its export limit, as SA draws on Victorian supply.

Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 49% overall, with sharp regional divergence. TAS1 leads at 90.49% renewable (hydro-dominated at 912 MW, wind 272 MW) with carbon intensity of just 0.062 tCO2/MWh. SA1 follows at 75.44% renewable, driven by wind at 883 MW, with intensity at 0.141 tCO2/MWh. VIC1 sits mid-pack at 46.85% renewable. NSW1 and QLD1 trail at 29.06% and 23.2% respectively, with both regions leaning on black coal (5,756 MW in NSW1, 5,249 MW in QLD1) to meet demand, and carbon intensity above 0.62 tCO2/MWh in each. Demand is moderate across the board — NSW1 leads at 9,063 MW, VIC1 at 6,301 MW, QLD1 at 6,885 MW — consistent with cool overnight temperatures (4.7-11.7°C across regions) driving heating load rather than any extreme peak.

Grid stress reads elevated at 77.4 on the scoring index, and TAS1 is the region to watch operationally. AEMO has been actively reclassifying non-credible contingency events on Tasmanian 110kV and 220kV lines (Sheffield-George Town, Ulverstone-Emu Bay, Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton) due to lightning activity overnight, with the Burnie-Port Latta-Smithton reclassification cancelled around 05:24 as the lightning cell moved through. The Sheffield-George Town 220kV credible contingency reclassification remains active, invoking the T-GTSH_N-2 constraint set on the Tas-Vic interconnector — worth monitoring given Basslink's role in cross-regional flow. Separately, SA1's intervention event from 1 August has been cancelled and the AGL Torrens Island directions have lapsed, indicating that voltage support issue has resolved. Price stability score of 33.6 reflects the wide inter-regional spread rather than volatility within any single region.