NEM Overview: Saturday 1 August 2026

Spot prices show a wide spread across the NEM this morning, ranging from -$4.50/MWh in SA to $91.15/MWh in WA. VIC and SA sit in negative territory at -$1.15/MWh and -$4.50/MWh respectively, both driven by strong wind output — VIC wind generation is running at 3,102 MW and SA wind at 1,564 MW, pushing SA's renewable penetration to 97.3% and carbon intensity down to 0.013 tCO2/MWh. NSW and QLD trade higher at $66.03/MWh and $55.50/MWh, with both regions leaning on black coal (4,595 MW in NSW, 5,053 MW in QLD) alongside wind contributions of 851 MW and 1,528 MW. TAS holds near-flat pricing at $0.18/MWh, supported by 840 MW of hydro and 269 MW of wind, keeping its renewable share at 89.9%.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 44.7% per the latest score, with grid stress reading 58.1 and price stability at 27.2 — the volatility is consistent with the NSW-QLD to VIC-SA price divergence exceeding $70/MWh at times this morning. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is flowing 1,049 MW northward and is binding at its export limit of 1,030 MW, while V-S-MNSP1 is also binding at -157 MW, reflecting active constraint management between VIC and SA. Cold, clear conditions across SA and VIC (7-9°C, low cloud) are supporting strong wind output, while NSW remains overcast with 96% cloud cover, limiting solar contribution to just 102 MW there.

Several active AEMO notices warrant attention. A direction remains in place for AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island B2 and B3 units to synchronise and follow dispatch targets from 1100 hrs today through 1430 hrs, issued for voltage support in SA — this follows a pattern of recurring SA voltage interventions over the past week. A VIC region transfer limit variation from a short-notice SYTS/SMTS line outage is also active, invoking constraints on the V-SA and T-V-MNSP1 interconnectors. Traders should watch for continued SA voltage management through midday, given the region's high wind penetration and negative pricing are likely to persist while demand remains subdued at 1,467 MW.