NEM Overview: Tuesday 4 August 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a tight $105-$146/MWh band this morning, with WA1 the outlier at $145.58/MWh (5:20am dispatch) while TAS1 trades lowest at $105.09/MWh. NSW1 ($130.01/MWh) and SA1 ($130.44/MWh) are running just above VIC1 ($115.77/MWh) and QLD1 ($116.11/MWh), a spread of roughly $25/MWh across the eastern regions that reflects overnight demand patterns rather than any acute stress. NSW1 carries the highest demand at 9,734 MW, followed by QLD1 at 7,135 MW and VIC1 at 6,522 MW, with SA1 (1,674 MW) and TAS1 (1,231 MW) well below.

Generation mix skews toward thermal overnight, as expected pre-dawn: NSW1 is running 5,671 MW black coal against 910 MW hydro, 800 MW wind and 679 MW battery output. VIC1 shows 4,584 MW brown coal with 1,500 MW wind. QLD1's black coal output is 6,129 MW, with 559 MW battery and 404 MW wind supplementing. TAS1 remains hydro-dominant at 1,060 MW against 208 MW gas OCGT, delivering the region's 84.65% renewable share and lowest carbon intensity at 0.0998 tCO2/MWh — a sharp contrast to QLD1's 13.39% renewable share and 0.7589 tCO2/MWh. NEM-wide renewable penetration reads 39.5% on the composite score, with SA1 at 25.15% and VIC1 at 23.68%. Weather today offers limited solar uplift across the south (SA1 at 100% cloud cover currently, VIC1 63%) while QLD1 enjoys clear skies and stronger solar potential (26.4% average today), pointing to a wind-and-hydro-led renewable contribution through the morning rather than solar.

Grid conditions carry moderate stress, with the composite grid stress score at 59.8 and price stability at 57.7. AEMO has an active automated constraint (CA_SYDS_59839EB2) on the NSW1-QLD1 interconnector since 8:15am yesterday to manage NSW power system security, still in force. Interconnector flows show V-SA binding at 547 MW (near its 558 MW export limit), NSW1-QLD1 exporting 732 MW into QLD1, and VIC1-NSW1 sending 661 MW north — worth monitoring given the NSW1-QLD1 constraint remains active. No new market interventions are in place today following the cancellation of the SA1 intervention event and Torrens Island directions earlier this week; watch for any recurrence of the lightning-related contingency reclassifications that affected TAS1 and NSW1 transmission lines over the past two days.