NEM Overview: Friday 31 July 2026

Spot prices sit in a tight $78-102/MWh band across the NEM as of 06:30 AEST, with VIC1 the highest at $102.36/MWh and QLD1 the lowest at $78.54/MWh — a $24 spread reflecting Queensland's substantial black coal (5,324 MW) and wind (1,564 MW) output easing local pricing. NSW1 ($97.64/MWh), SA1 ($101.02/MWh), TAS1 ($92.07/MWh) and WA1 ($97.98/MWh) all cluster close to the $100 mark. NSW1 carries the highest demand at 8,559 MW, with VIC1 (6,231 MW) and QLD1 (6,066 MW) following; cold overnight conditions (VIC1 at 3.2°C, TAS1 at 3.9°C) are lifting heating demand across the southern states.

Generation mix shows the expected split: NSW1 and QLD1 remain black coal-dominant (5,681 MW and 5,324 MW respectively) with solid wind contributions (812 MW and 1,564 MW), while VIC1 runs heavily on brown coal (4,759 MW) with modest wind (292 MW). SA1 stands out with wind at 812 MW against just 430 MW combined gas (OCGT + CCGT), pushing SA1 renewable penetration to 65.6% and carbon intensity down to 0.20 tCO2/MWh — the cleanest region on the grid this morning. TAS1 continues to lean on hydro (1,228 MW), delivering 91.6% renewable penetration and 0.055 tCO2/MWh. NSW1 and QLD1 sit around 23-24% renewable penetration, and VIC1 trails at 6.8% given the brown coal base load and near-zero solar overnight. NEM-wide renewable penetration scores at 39.1%, with the platform's grid stress score elevated at 74.6, consistent with cold-driven demand and tight reserve margins in SA1.

Interconnector flows show NSW1 exporting 1,078 MW to QLD1 (at its import limit, binding), while VIC1 draws 407 MW from Tasmania via Basslink and sends 128 MW into NSW1. SA1 remains a modest net importer from Victoria (18 MW) with negligible flow on the SA-NSW link. Notable notices: AEMO's Directlink interconnector (all three cables, NSW) returned to service yesterday afternoon after a planned outage, easing prior NSW-QLD transfer constraints; a short-notice outage on the South Morang-Sydenham 500kV line remains active in VIC1 with the V-SMSY constraint set still invoked; and SA1 has seen a string of LOR1/LOR2 reserve notices and a non-credible contingency event at City West substation over the past two days, though all have since been cancelled. Traders should watch SA1 pricing today given its higher wind reliance and recent reserve tightness, and monitor the VIC1 network constraint for any impact on Basslink flows.