NEM Overview: Tuesday 23 June 2026

South Australia is the clear outlier this interval, printing $500.44/MWh against a NEM backdrop of $79–$121/MWh elsewhere. The V-SA interconnector is binding at its export limit of 242.74 MW and the Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) is also binding at 97.93 MW, meaning SA is effectively importing at capacity and still cannot resolve the local price. With wind generating only 53 MW against gas OCGT at 555 MW and gas CCGT at 486 MW, SA's total demand of 1,654 MW is being met almost entirely by gas and imports. At 4.3°C with heating demand elevated, load is firm and the constraint on both SA interconnectors is keeping the spread wide. The Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) remains active and is limiting the VIC–SA pathway further. NSW sits at $121.46/MWh with 9,517 MW of demand, QLD at $116.80/MWh with 6,976 MW, VIC at $110.65/MWh with 6,123 MW, and TAS at $79.23/MWh — the lowest in the NEM, supported by 1,064 MW of hydro running against 1,278 MW of demand. The NSW–QLD interconnector is binding at its import limit of -415.16 MW, indicating QLD is exporting to NSW at the interconnector ceiling, consistent with both regions running near-identical prices.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 34.4% per the current scores, though the generation mix data tells a more granular story. Victoria's 961 MW of wind is the largest single renewable contribution on the mainland, but brown coal at 4,175 MW dominates VIC's 6,863 MW total output, yielding a carbon intensity of 0.9407 tCO2/MWh — the highest in the NEM. NSW black coal is running at 6,689 MW with hydro contributing a substantial 1,235 MW, giving NSW a 0.7094 tCO2/MWh intensity. Queensland's black coal holds at 5,287 MW with wind at 677 MW, for a 0.7458 tCO2/MWh intensity and a renewable share of just 12.2%. Tasmania remains at 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable penetration from hydro and wind, though a forecast LOR1 on 25 June (580 MW reserve requirement, 530 MW available) warrants attention — particularly given Basslink (T-V-MNSP1) is currently at zero flow.

The grid stress score of 70.9 reflects the SA price spike and multiple binding interconnectors, not a system-wide reliability concern — MTPASA published 23 June identifies no low reserve conditions across the NEM. Traders should note two operational items effective tomorrow: AEMO is increasing the Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch cap in QLD from 250 MW to 300 MW and in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW from 25 June, applicable during credible islanding periods. The MSATS pre-production environment also goes offline today 1300–1700 AEST for the SSC Release 1 settlement cycle shortening work — no production system impact, but worth confirming with your settlements teams. For today's outlook