NEM Overview: Wednesday 24 June 2026
Victoria leads the NEM on price at 171.95 $/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with SA close behind at 159.71 $/MWh and NSW at 147.99 $/MWh. Queensland and Tasmania sit materially lower at 90.40 $/MWh and 79.28 $/MWh respectively — a spread of nearly 93 $/MWh between Victoria and Tasmania that reflects both tight southern demand under cold overnight conditions and constrained interconnector flows. Total NEM-wide demand sits at 25,457 MW across the five regions, consistent with a mid-winter overnight profile. The grid stress score of 62.2 confirms the market is operating under elevated but not extreme pressure.
NEM-wide renewable penetration stands at 35.9%, with Tasmania running at 100% (1,268 MW hydro, 18 MW wind), SA at 43.7% (673 MW wind), and NSW at 25.5% (808 MW wind, 1,304 MW hydro leading the mix). Victoria is the outlier at 4.8% renewables — 3,676 MW of brown coal and 916 MW of gas OCGT are carrying the bulk of a 6,410 MW regional demand, with wind contributing just 93 MW and solar effectively zero. Queensland sits at 22.7%, with 1,463 MW of wind supplementing 4,837 MW of black coal. Carbon intensity ranges from 0 tCO2/MWh in Tasmania to 1.05 tCO2/MWh in Victoria, with NSW at 0.63 tCO2/MWh and Queensland at 0.66 tCO2/MWh.
On interconnectors, the NSW–QLD1 link is binding at its import limit of -590 MW (flow from NSW into Queensland), and V-SA is binding at -160 MW (flow from Victoria into SA). The VIC–NSW link is flowing 596 MW from Victoria into NSW and is sitting at its import limit, meaning southern generation is pressing hard against the northern transfer ceiling. The Buronga B Bus 220 kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) remains active on the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector, tightening the SA–VIC transfer path. Murraylink's V-S-MNSP1 is flowing -38 MW and sitting at its export limit, indicating that interconnector is fully utilised in the SA-to-VIC direction.
Two items warrant close attention today. First, a forecast LOR1 condition is declared for Tasmania from 0800–0900 AEST this morning — Tasmania's capacity reserve is forecast at 530 MW against a requirement of 580 MW, a 50 MW shortfall. Basslink is flowing at its 100 MW import limit into Tasmania, leaving little headroom. Traders with TAS exposure should monitor the 0800 dispatch intervals carefully. Second, effective from today (25 June), AEMO increases the cap on Very Fast Contingency FCAS dispatch in QLD from 250 MW to 300 MW and in SA from 100 MW to 150 MW during credible islanding periods — a change that may affect FCAS clearing prices and rebidding strategy in both regions through the morning.