NEM Overview: Monday 29 June 2026

Spot prices at 06:25 AEST sit in a narrow $90–$128/MWh band across the NEM, with SA leading at $127.4/MWh on 1,497 MW of demand, Victoria at $110.5/MWh, NSW at $105.1/MWh, Queensland at $90.4/MWh, and Tasmania well below the pack at $25.18/MWh on 1,097 MW. The $102/MWh SA–QLD spread and Tasmania's unusually soft price reflect distinct supply conditions: Tasmania runs entirely on hydro and wind (100% renewable, 0 tCO2/MWh) with Basslink carrying zero flow at present, while SA's gas-heavy evening dispatch — 394 MW OCGT and 192 MW CCGT alongside 683 MW of wind — pushes its carbon intensity to 0.27 tCO2/MWh and its price above neighbouring regions. Grid stress scores 68/100 NEM-wide, indicating tighter-than-normal conditions for a Tuesday morning.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 40.5%. The key contributors are Queensland's 1,828 MW of wind and NSW's 1,308 MW, with hydro adding 1,186 MW in NSW and 983 MW in Tasmania. Solar is negligible across all regions at this hour, as expected in winter pre-dawn conditions. VIC's mix is anchored by 4,083 MW of brown coal and 976 MW of wind, producing a carbon intensity of 0.95 tCO2/MWh — the highest in the NEM. NSW sits at 0.62 tCO2/MWh with 6,075 MW of black coal alongside strong wind and hydro output. The NSW–QLD interconnector (NSW1-QLD1) is carrying 1,003 MW northbound at near-limit (import limit –1,038 MW), and the VIC–SA interconnector (V-SA) is exporting 181 MW into SA at its export binding limit of 181 MW, explaining SA's price premium given constrained import headroom.

Two active market notices warrant attention today. The Balranald–Buronga X3 220kV line outage in NSW, originally due to complete at 23:00 last night, was rescheduled and ran through to 01:00 AEST this morning with constraint set N-BABU invoked; the cancellation notice (144356) confirms the related Buronga B Bus 7118 isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) affecting the Murraylink interconnector (V-S-MNSP1) has now been revoked at 01:40 AEST. More relevant for today's trading, a series of STPASA Forecast LOR1 conditions remain active for SA across 3–5 July, with forecast reserves falling 30–40 MW below the capacity reserve requirement in multiple windows — particularly 04 July (0000–1100 and 1600–0000) and 05 July (0000–0230). The earlier LOR2 forecast for SA this morning (30 June, 0800–1030) was cancelled on 28 June, so no reserve shortage is currently declared for today.

The outlook for today points to sustained mid-range pricing across NSW, VIC, and SA through the morning peak as winter heating demand builds — all three regions are sitting at sub