NEM Overview: Tuesday 30 June 2026

NEM-wide spot prices are sharply divergent heading into the first trading day of the new financial year. NSW sits at $97.67/MWh and QLD at $92.30/MWh as both states carry substantial evening demand — 8,446 MW and 6,517 MW respectively — with black coal providing the bulk of local generation (5,355 MW in NSW, 4,910 MW in QLD) and no solar output across any region at this hour. Victoria and SA are markedly softer at $10.50/MWh and $9.57/MWh, with VIC producing 3,200 MW of wind against demand of only 5,499 MW and SA generating 1,856 MW of wind against just 1,546 MW of local demand — SA's near-complete wind coverage is pushing 430 MW south via the V-SA and Murraylink interconnectors toward VIC. The VIC1–NSW1 interconnector is binding at its export limit of 820 MW, directly underpinning the east-coast price spread. Tasmania clears at $25.12/MWh with 954 MW of hydro and 230 MW of wind; Basslink flow is currently zero, with both import and export limits at 0 MW. WA (SWIS) is at $100.31/MWh, consistent with evening peak conditions.

NEM-wide renewable penetration sits at 38.9% per the current gridIQ score, reflecting the overnight mix. By region, SA is running at 97.8% renewable (wind-dominated), TAS at 100% (hydro and wind), VIC at 52.2%, NSW at 25.4%, and QLD at 21.2%. Carbon intensity follows accordingly: SA is effectively zero at 0.011 tCO2/MWh, TAS at zero, while QLD is highest at 0.677 tCO2/MWh and NSW at 0.655 tCO2/MWh. Grid stress scores 75.7 out of 100, consistent with the binding VIC–NSW interconnector and the active reserve outlook for SA later this week.

The most material active notice is a Forecast LOR2 for SA on Friday 3 July, with available capacity of 625 MW falling 133 MW short of the 758 MW reserve requirement between 07:30 and 11:00 AEST. AEMO is seeking a market response and has not yet set an intervention threshold. On today's network, the Tailem Bend–South East 275kV line returned to service at 20:45 last night, removing constraint set S-TBSE and restoring full SA export capability westward — a marginal relief for the Friday reserve position. A Greenbank SVC outage in QLD (constraint Q-GB_VC) remains active and is limiting NSW1–QLD1 and Directlink flows; this is consistent with the 406 MW net flow from QLD to NSW currently observed on that interconnector.

Today's outlook: solar will lift from mid-morning across QLD (forecast 15.7 average potential) and NSW (4.1), which should soften prices in both regions and reduce gas OCGT dispatch — QLD is currently running 475 MW of OCGT to cover the overnight gap. VIC wind stays strong through the day (avg 10.8 potential), likely keeping Victorian prices depressed and the VIC–NSW interconnector under continued export pressure. SA wind