NEM Overview: Wednesday 1 July 2026
Spot prices show a wide NEM spread this morning, with VIC and SA sitting in negative territory at -$6.51/MWh and -$6.46/MWh respectively while NSW trades at $88.22/MWh and QLD at $84.50/MWh — a swing of nearly $95/MWh between the softest and firmest regions. WA sits highest at $104.04/MWh. TAS is mid-range at $51.12/MWh. The negative pricing in the south reflects strong wind output: SA wind generation is running at 1,547 MW against total demand of just 1,612 MW, and VIC wind is contributing 3,606 MW into 5,681 MW of demand, pushing both regions into oversupply. NSW and QLD remain firmer on the back of heavier black coal dispatch (5,101 MW and 5,070 MW respectively) with comparatively thin renewable shares.
Renewable penetration across the NEM sits at 48.9% on the latest scoring, but there's a stark regional divide. SA is running at 94.87% renewable with carbon intensity of just 0.0251 tCO2/MWh, and TAS is at 100% renewable (hydro plus wind) with zero measured intensity. QLD sits at the other end at 24.58% renewable with intensity of 0.6597 tCO2/MWh, and NSW is at 34.88% with 0.5718 tCO2/MWh. VIC is roughly mid-pack at 53.37% renewable despite the negative pricing, with brown coal still contributing 2,845 MW alongside the wind surge. Grid stress is elevated at 72.3 on the composite score, and price stability is soft at 29.9, consistent with the large interregional spread and the SA voltage-related interventions overnight.
Network conditions warrant attention today. AEMO issued and later cancelled a reclassification of a non-credible contingency (Para-Templers West and Magill-Torrens Island A 275kV lines) in SA due to severe weather, with the reclassification lifted at 0540 hrs — matching current SA wind speeds of 32.7 km/h and 100% cloud cover. AEMO also directed AGL's Barker Inlet and Torrens Island B2 units online overnight for voltage support in SA, with the Torrens direction still expected to run until 1700 hrs today. Separately, AEMO has flagged a forecast LOR2 condition for SA on 3 July (0730