NEM Overview: Tuesday 7 July 2026

NEM spot prices sit in a tight $108-128/MWh band this morning, with WA1 leading at $128.26/MWh, NSW1 at $127.22/MWh, and QLD1 the softest region at $108.12/MWh. Demand is winter-driven and moderate, with NSW1 drawing 8,901 MW, QLD1 6,691 MW and VIC1 6,764 MW. The NSW1-QLD1 interconnector is flowing 971 MW from QLD into NSW, consistent with the ~$19/MWh spread between the two regions, while other interconnector flows (VIC-SA, TAS-VIC, VIC-NSW) remain well within limits and non-binding.

Generation mix shows clear regional variation this morning. NSW1 is running on black coal (6,641 MW) with strong hydro (999 MW) and wind (776 MW) contributions; VIC1 leans heavily on brown coal (4,571 MW) plus gas OCGT (854 MW), with solar at zero under 100% cloud cover; QLD1 combines black coal (5,908 MW) with wind (1,071 MW) and battery output (506 MW); SA1 is wind-dominated (880 MW) alongside gas CCGT/OCGT (537 MW combined); and TAS1 is essentially all-hydro (1,569 MW). Renewable penetration varies sharply by region — TAS1 sits at 100%, SA1 at 63.4%, NSW1 at 23.1%, QLD1 at 21.9%, and VIC1 at just 7.3%, giving a NEM-wide renewable penetration score of 37.9%. Carbon intensity mirrors this spread, from 0 tCO2/MWh in TAS1 to 1.035 tCO2/MWh in VIC1.

Overnight cloud cover (99-100% in VIC1 and SA1) has suppressed solar to near-zero in both regions, while today's outlook shows improving solar potential in NSW1, QLD1 and SA1 as cloud clears through the morning. Wind potential remains low across the southern regions (0.1-0.7) but QLD1's wind fleet is still contributing 1,071 MW. Grid stress reads 79.8 on the internal index, reflecting cold-weather demand and tight reserves in SA1 — AEMO's forecast LOR1 condition for SA1 on 14 July (424 M