NEM Overview: Saturday 11 July 2026

**NEM Market Overview – Sunday 12 July 2026, 6:25am AEST**

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the mainland this morning. QLD1 leads at $60.74/MWh and NSW1 sits at $59.97/MWh, while VIC1 (-$1.15/MWh), SA1 (-$1.07/MWh) and TAS1 (-$0.45/MWh) are all in negative territory, reflecting strong wind output across the southern states pushing prices below zero. WA1 (not synchronised with the NEM) is trading well above the pack at $115.10/MWh. This east-west split is typical of overnight/early morning conditions with high wind generation in the south and coal-dominant demand still firm in QLD and NSW. Demand is moderate across regions — NSW1 at 7,410 MW, QLD1 at 5,894 MW, VIC1 at 5,256 MW — consistent with mild winter morning load ahead of the day's peak.

Renewable penetration sits at 47.5% NEM-wide, with a wide regional spread. SA1 is running at 97.64% renewables (wind at 1,772 MW, near-zero gas), and TAS1 is at 100% renewable (hydro 295 MW, wind 493 MW), both posting negative or near-zero carbon intensity. VIC1 is at 53.5% renewable with wind at 3,497 MW alongside 3,045 MW of brown coal. NSW1 renewable share is lower at 36.7%, with wind (1,982 MW) supplementing 3,993 MW of black coal. QLD1 has the lowest renewable share at 10.8%, generation dominated by 5,109 MW of black coal with wind contributing 450 MW. Carbon intensity scores reflect this spread — QLD1 highest at 0.779 tCO2/MWh, SA1 lowest at 0.012 tCO2/MWh.

Interconnector flows show VIC1-NSW1 near its export limit at 949 MW (binding), supporting NSW1 demand from VIC1's wind surplus. V-S-MNSP1 and T-V-MNSP1 are also binding, at -157 MW and -401 MW respectively, indicating active constraint management on Victorian interconnection. Grid stress reads 61.4 and price stability is soft at 38.9, consistent with the current volatility and negative pricing in the south. Weather