NEM Overview: Sunday 12 July 2026

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the NEM this morning. QLD1 sits at $72.50/MWh and NSW1 at $69.99/MWh, while VIC1, SA1 and TAS1 are all in negative territory at -$1.15, -$1.08 and -$1.19/MWh respectively — a spread of over $73/MWh across the mainland. WA1 (SWIS, non-NEM) is the outlier at $107.21/MWh. The VIC1-NSW1 interconnector is exporting at its 990.7 MW limit and binding, pushing Victorian output north into NSW and helping explain the negative Victorian pricing alongside strong wind generation. V-S-MNSP1 (Murraylink) is also binding, flowing -5 MW at its constrained limit, with an active AEMO notice confirming Murraylink control is unavailable until further notice — worth monitoring for any follow-on volatility in SA/VIC pricing today.

Renewable penetration sits at 50.1% NEM-wide, with strong regional variation. TAS1 is running 100% renewable (326.96 MW hydro, 529.15 MW wind) at zero carbon intensity, and SA1 is at 97.35% renewable, driven by 1,572.97 MW of wind against negligible thermal generation (0.11 MW gas OCGT, 42.69 MW CCGT) — a combined SA-TAS wind and hydro surplus that's a key driver of the negative pricing spilling into VIC1. VIC1 renewable share is 46.62%, supported by 3,232.43 MW wind against 3,738.34 MW brown coal. NSW1 (27.84% renewable) and QLD1 (17.1% renewable) remain more thermally dominant, with NSW1 running 5,364.93 MW black coal and QLD1 5,172.13 MW black coal alongside 636.81 MW wind. Grid stress score is elevated at 66.2 and price stability is soft at 37.7, consistent with the wide inter-regional spread and constrained interconnector flows.

Weather supports the generation picture: SA1 wind potential (16.4, current) and speeds near 22 km/h are underpinning the region's high renewable output, while QLD1 has clear skies (0% cloud) but low wind potential (0.9), keeping its renewable share thin. NSW1 and VIC1 both show low current solar potential given morning con