NEM Overview: Thursday 16 July 2026

Spot prices are diverging sharply across the NEM this morning, with WA1 the outlier at $164.84/MWh against a mainland grid ranging from $83.69/MWh in QLD1 to $130.44/MWh in SA1. NSW1 sits at $97.55/MWh, VIC1 at $116.35/MWh and TAS1 at $105.33/MWh. The SA1-QLD1 spread of roughly $47/MWh reflects tighter local conditions in the south, while QLD1's relatively soft pricing lines up with strong wind output of 1,059 MW supplementing its 6,341 MW black coal base. Demand is heaviest in NSW1 at 8,946 MW, followed by QLD1 at 6,960 MW and VIC1 at 6,402 MW, with SA1 and TAS1 well below at 1,653 MW and 1,288 MW respectively.

Renewable penetration nationally sits around 35.1% per gridIQ's composite score, but the regional spread is wide. TAS1 is running at 87.2% renewables this morning, powered almost entirely by hydro (1,262 MW) with wind contributing 150 MW and carbon intensity a low 0.083 tCO2/MWh. SA1 follows at 30.4% renewable, blending 276 MW wind with 398 MW gas OCGT and 346 MW gas CCGT, intensity at 0.401 tCO2/MWh. NSW1 sits at 25.5% renewable with wind (1,018 MW) and hydro (1,051 MW) offsetting 6,605 MW of black coal, intensity 0.654 tCO2/MWh. QLD1 is at 18.1% renewable and VIC1 the lowest at 6.2%, with VIC1 leaning heavily on 4,733 MW of brown coal against minimal wind (197 MW) and zero solar overnight, pushing its carbon intensity to 1.079 tCO2/MWh — the highest of the mainland regions. Overnight cloud cover across NSW1 (100%) and low wind speeds in VIC1 and SA1 are keeping renewable output subdued ahead of today's solar ramp.

On interconnectors, V-SA is flowing 511 MW from Victoria into South Australia, comfortably within its 554 MW export limit, while NSW1-QLD1 is exporting 969 MW from NSW1 to QLD