Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 18 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $52.63/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 5,544 MW, down sharply from last night's evening peak where prices spiked above $200/MWh as demand climbed past 6,800 MW. The overnight trough saw demand bottom out near 4,200 MW between 14:00-15:00 AEST (04:00-05:00 local), with prices compressing into the $30-40/MWh range, and briefly touching $1.23/MWh at 14:05 UTC — confirming the tight demand-price coupling that defines this market: every 500-1,000 MW swing in load is translating into $30-80/MWh price movement.
The demand trajectory today follows a classic winter shape. Overnight demand is bottoming out now in the 4,200-5,500 MW band with prices forecast to ease to $35-45/MWh through the current period into early morning. AEMO's forecast shows a sharp ramp beginning around 06:30-07:00 AEST as morning heating load kicks in — forecast prices jump from $38 to $79.57/MWh in that single 30-minute window, then continue climbing to a forecast peak of $94.66/MWh around 09:00 AEST as demand is expected to push back toward the 7,300-7,400 MW range seen yesterday during the equivalent morning ramp. That prior-day pattern showed demand holding above 7,300 MW from 08:00 through 10:00 AEST, with prices pinned at $99-115/MWh for over two hours — a useful proxy for today's likely peak-period pricing given similar cold conditions (4.8°C, heating demand index 13.2).
After the morning peak, AEMO's forecast shows prices easing progressively through the day — dropping to $59-69/MWh by early afternoon and then into unusually low territory ($11-35/MWh) between 13:30-18:00 AEST, consistent with weaker midday demand and softer heating load as temperatures reach a forecast max of 16.4°C. This creates a clear low-price window for flexible load: the identified load-shifting opportunities at 13:30-14:30 AEST ($15.12/MWh average) and 16:30-18:30 AEST ($19.18/MWh average) offer $75-80/MWh savings versus this morning's peak pricing. No demand-side constraints or load-shedding notices are active for VIC1 today; the only relevant network notice is the SA interconnector capac