Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 13 July 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,022 MW, climbing sharply from the overnight trough of ~4,700-4,950 MW recorded between 16:00-19:00 AEST yesterday evening. Demand has risen over 1,300 MW in the past two hours as the morning ramp builds, and price sensitivity to this ramp is pronounced: the interval data shows demand above 7,400 MW this morning coincided with prices spiking above $200/MWh multiple times (07:00-07:35 AEST saw $177-247/MWh against demand of 7,400-7,850 MW), while the demand trough below 5,000 MW through the afternoon and evening produced sustained negative pricing, with numerous intervals at -$1.10 to -$1.15/MWh.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming price profile through today's evening peak, with forecast RRP rising from $30.96/MWh at 21:00 AEST to a local peak of $38.39/MWh at 22:00 AEST, before easing overnight to near-zero and negative territory between 02:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow. This pattern mirrors last night's price action, where demand exceeding 7,000 MW after 21:00 AEST drove volatile pricing including a $283.83/MWh spike at 22:20 AEST, followed by an extreme -$757.07/MWh trough at 00:15 AEST as demand eased back below 7,000 MW. Traders should note the load window analysis flags 02:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow as low-risk, low-price periods (averaging -$1.10/MWh), consistent with the low-demand, high-renewable overnight profile.

Generation mix at 20:00 AEST shows brown coal (3,297 MW) and wind (3,278 MW) as the dominant sources, with renewable penetration at 50.09% and carbon intensity at 0.6089 tCO2/MWh. Wind potential is forecast to average 6.5% tomorrow (14 July) before dropping to near-zero (0.1-1.1%) through 16-20 July, which will tighten supply margins during demand peaks and likely sustain the price volatility pattern seen over the past 24 hours. No specific VIC demand-side notices are active, though the VIC-SA negative residue constraint (NRM_VIC1_SA1) activated at 17:35