Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 11 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$1.15/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 5,256 MW, reflecting the tail end of overnight softness rather than any current stress. The overnight period shows demand ranged from roughly 4,800 MW to 6,900 MW, and price sensitivity to demand is sharp: once load pushed above 6,700 MW around 16:40-17:00 AEST yesterday's cycle, prices spiked from single digits into the $20-55/MWh band, peaking at $54.11/MWh at 17:10 AEST as demand approached 7,075 MW. Conversely, whenever demand fell below roughly 5,500 MW overnight, prices dropped into negative territory (-$1 to -$7/MWh), consistent with minimal thermal generation being on the margin and wind supplying over half the mix.
Today's price trajectory should track the classic winter shape: overnight negative-to-flat pricing persists into the early morning, but forecast RRPs turn positive from 06:30 AEST ($8.74/MWh) and climb through the morning ramp to a $30-38/MWh band between 07:00 and 12:00 AEST, peaking near $38.49/MWh around 11:00 AEST. This aligns with the historical pattern where demand builds past 7,000 MW during the morning peak, pulling higher-cost plant into the dispatch stack. Prices then ease back toward flat/negative territory from 13:30 AEST onward as demand tapers, with forecasts showing a return to negative pricing (-$1 to -$6/MWh) through the afternoon and into the evening, including a notable -$6.51/MWh forecast at 18:00 AEST.
Current generation mix shows wind at 3,497 MW and brown coal at 3,045 MW carrying the bulk of supply, with solar and hydro negligible given the 8.7°C morning temperature and low solar potential (0% currently, rising to only 1.3% average today per the outlook). Renewable penetration sits at 53.5% with carbon intensity at 0.5675 tCO2/MWh. No demand-side constraints are flagged in today's notices — the active items relate to network contingencies (Eildon-Mt Beauty lines, now reverted to non-credible) and completed transmission outages (Heywood transformer, Red Cliffs-CPTS line), none of which are currently limiting import/export capacity into VIC1