Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 7 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $125.61/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,764 MW, rebuilding sharply after an overnight trough of 5,426 MW (around 17:45 the previous evening, AEST-adjusted low-load window) where prices held near $91-94/MWh. The current 06:25 reading marks the start of the morning demand ramp, up roughly 1,270 MW from the 18:00 low over the past 40 minutes — a trajectory consistent with the morning heating load kicking in, with current temperature at 6°C and heating demand indexed at 12 against negligible solar potential (0%) under 100% cloud cover.
Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced this morning. Historical intervals show a demand increase from roughly 6,200 MW to 6,760 MW driving price up from $110/MWh to $125/MWh — a gradient of roughly $15/MWh per 500 MW step. This tracks the overnight pattern of 6 July into 7 July, where demand climbing from 7,135 MW to a peak near 8,650 MW pushed prices as high as $187.55/MWh, confirming Victoria's steep supply curve once thermal and gas peaking plant are engaged beyond baseload brown coal output (currently 4,571 MW against total generation of 5,978 MW across the sampled fuel mix).
The forecast trajectory points to a strong morning peak: AEMO's dispatch forecasts show prices climbing from $119/MWh at 07:00 to $164.69/MWh by 08:00, before a pronounced spike to $285.94/MWh forecast for the 09:30 interval — the sharpest price signal of the day. This aligns with the typical VIC1 morning demand peak as commercial and industrial load ramps alongside residential heating, compounded by zero solar contribution given current overcast conditions and the 8.4% average solar potential forecast for today. Demand should ease into early afternoon, with forecast prices retreating to the $90-100/MWh band by 13:00-14:00 before a secondary evening peak lifts prices back to $164-180/MWh through 18:00-20:00 AEST.
No demand-side constraints or load-shedding directions are active in VIC1 today; the only regional notice of note is a resolved non-conformance event on GANNB1 (25 MW, 6 July) and a prior VIC1 lightning-related contingency reclassification