Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 5 July 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $93.32/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,590 MW and climbing sharply — up from 5,776 MW just two hours earlier at 04:55. This overnight-to-morning ramp is the key driver: demand has risen over 800 MW in 90 minutes as the morning load-up begins, and price has responded accordingly, jumping from single-digit territory below $10/MWh at 04:00-05:00 to over $90/MWh now. The price-demand relationship is tight through this window — every ~100 MW of demand increase is adding roughly $10-15/MWh, consistent with brown coal (currently 4,693 MW, or 71% of the mix) and gas peakers being progressively dispatched up the merit order.

The demand trajectory for today points to a sustained climb through the morning peak. AEMO's forecast curve shows prices rising further to $115.92/MWh by 08:30 AEST before easing slightly into the $90-100/MWh band through midday. A second, sharper peak is forecast for the evening: prices are projected to hit $128-134/MWh between 17:30 and 19:30 AEST, aligning with the typical winter evening demand peak when heating load compounds with the end of the low-demand overnight trough. Cold conditions are reinforcing this pattern — current temperature is 4.1°C with heating demand at 13.9 (on the reported index) and negligible solar (cloud cover 90%), meaning rooftop PV won't blunt the morning ramp today.

Renewable penetration is low for this period at 19.66%, with wind contributing 1,124 MW and solar at zero given the overcast start and pre-dawn timing. This leaves thermal generation carrying the bulk of the ramp, which is reflected in the carbon intensity reading of 0.9675 tCO2/MWh — near the top of the past 24-hour range. On the demand-side notice front, AEMO has flagged a non-conformance at GANNB1 (25 MW) for the 05:15-05:40 AEST window this morning, a minor generation-side deviation rather than a demand event, and no load-shedding or demand-response directions are currently active in VIC1. Traders should watch the 07:00-09:00 AEST window closely, where forecast pricing implies the steepest demand-driven price risk of the morning block, followed by the more significant evening peak risk after 17:00 AEST.