Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 3 July 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $76.86/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 5,359 MW — down from the overnight evening peak near 7,780 MW recorded around 18:30-19:00 AEST yesterday evening. The demand trajectory over the past 24 hours shows the classic winter morning-evening double peak: demand troughed near 4,800-5,000 MW in the early afternoon (13:00-18:00), then climbed sharply into the evening peak, pushing price from the $38-50/MWh range up to $75-87/MWh as demand crossed 7,600 MW.

Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced through the ramp periods. Between 06:00 and 08:00 AEST this morning, demand rose from roughly 6,600 MW to 7,780 MW, and price responded by climbing from around $10-58/MWh into the $70-87/MWh band — a clear demand-driven ramp as brown coal (currently 4,577 MW) and gas peaking plant (GAS_OCGT at 128 MW) were dispatched to cover the shortfall left by wind, which has eased to 1,295 MW. Solar contributes nothing at this hour with sunrise still ahead, and battery output of 106 MW is minor relative to the swing.

AEMO's forecast points to a firm demand-driven price escalation through today. Forecast RRP climbs from $68-77/MWh in the early morning to a midday peak of $127.36/MWh at 12:00 AEST, with the 07:00-13:00 window holding above $90/MWh throughout — consistent with cold minimum temperatures (9°C overnight, easing only to 13°C max) driving sustained heating demand and low wind potential (1.3-1.8 across the forecast window) limiting renewable offset. Renewable penetration in VIC has fallen to 23.84% and carbon intensity risen to 0.9173 tCO2/MWh, both signalling coal and gas are carrying more of the load as wind output tapers. No demand-side constraints or non-conformance notices specific to VIC are active today; the SA region's forecast LOR2 reserve shortfall (0730-1100 AEST) and NSW's Upper Tumut contingency reclassification are the operationally relevant notices but do not directly bind VIC dispatch.