Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 28 June 2026
Victoria sits at 5,805 MW and $51.42/MWh at 6:25 AEST, with price rising sharply from near-zero levels seen through the solar window — the $0/MWh prints between 17:45 and 19:00 AEST reflect the classic mid-afternoon oversupply phase giving way to an accelerating evening ramp. The demand trajectory through today's price history tells a clear story: prices tracked in the $80–$111/MWh band when demand pushed above 6,500 MW during this morning's winter peak (07:15–08:15 AEST, reaching 7,217 MW), then collapsed as demand fell away through the day and sub-$12/MWh conditions dominated from 13:00 through to approximately 19:00 AEST as the midday solar contribution suppressed the need for higher-cost despatch.
The demand-price relationship today shows a sharp sensitivity threshold around 5,500–6,000 MW. Below that level through the afternoon, prices cleared near the market floor. As demand has climbed back through 5,800 MW this evening, the spot price has responded — moving from $37.88/MWh at 20:00 AEST to $51.42/MWh now, a 36% lift over 25 minutes on a demand increase of roughly 524 MW. The generation mix at 6:30 AEST shows wind at 2,441 MW and brown coal at 3,966 MW as the primary sources, with solar contributing 0 MW given the 9°C winter evening and 38% cloud cover.
The forward price curve signals where this is heading. Forecasts show prices climbing to $83–$84/MWh by 07:00–08:00 AEST as the winter morning peak builds, consistent with this morning's experience when demand breached 7,000 MW. The curve then eases to the $60–$77/MWh range through late morning before another price collapse is expected through the afternoon and overnight — with sub-$12/MWh conditions forecast to dominate from 01:30 AEST through to approximately 14:00 AEST tomorrow, with wind potential scoring 6/10 for the day. Traders should note the $50–$84/MWh step sits at roughly the 5,500–6,000 MW demand threshold; any deviation in overnight temperatures from the forecast 10.3°C minimum will shift that morning ramp timing materially.