Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 29 June 2026

Victoria sits at $110.50/MWh with demand at 5,703 MW as of 06:25 AEST, a level that reflects the post-morning-peak trough of a typical winter Tuesday. The price trajectory through today tells the full story: demand climbed from around 5,856 MW at 06:35 AEST through a sharp morning ramp to a session peak near 7,832 MW at 17:50 AEST, driving spot prices to $169–$201/MWh across that window. As demand retreated through the afternoon and into early evening, prices compressed back toward the $100–$110/MWh range where they now sit. The correlation is tight — every 500 MW step up in demand through the 6,500–7,500 MW band added roughly $40–60/MWh to the spot price, with the steepest price sensitivity appearing above 7,400 MW where gas OCGT (currently 404 MW) is setting the marginal cost.

The current generation mix — brown coal at 4,083 MW, wind at 976 MW, gas OCGT at 404 MW, battery at 52 MW, and hydro at 16 MW — is adequate for present demand, but the mix is already carbon-intensive at 0.948 tCO2/MWh with renewables at just 18.87%. That renewable share has declined steadily from above 40% during the overnight and early morning periods as wind output relative to total demand has fallen with rising load, and with solar contributing zero generation under 100% cloud cover and 13°C. The Balranald–Buronga 220kV line outage (constraint set N-BABU, rescheduled to complete at 01:00 AEST 30 June) continues to limit the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector, restricting Victoria's import flexibility from South Australia.

The forward price curve for today signals a pronounced escalation through the late evening peak. Forecasts show $110.50/MWh at 07:00 AEST rising to $223/MWh by 09:00 AEST, peaking near $244/MWh around 11:30–12:00 AEST as demand re-escalates into the second daily high — the winter evening heating peak — before easing back toward $148/MWh through the pre-dawn hours. This double-peak structure, with the second peak more expensive than the first, reflects tighter supply margins once gas OCGT is fully committed and battery storage has cycled. Demand-side participants with flexibility should note the sub-$15/MWh windows forecast between 02:00–03:30 AEST (16:00–17:30 UTC) as load valleys where deferred consumption carries maximum value against the $244/MWh peak exposure.

Weather reinforces the demand outlook: tomorrow's forecast of 12–14°C with 93% cloud cover and average wind potential of 6.7 sustains strong heating load with negligible solar offset. The evening peak demand profile is unlikely to soften materially, and any wind underperformance relative to the 6.7 wind-potential rating would push the gas OCGT stack higher into merit order, amplifying price sensitivity in the $220–$244/MWh forecast band.