Commodity Demand — VIC1: Thursday 25 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $148.84/MWh with demand at 6,218 MW as of 06:25 AEST — well below the overnight peak of 8,036 MW reached around 18:00 AEST and consistent with the early-morning trough the region has tracked through the 5,000–5,500 MW range during the solar and low-heating-load window of mid-afternoon. The demand trajectory over the past several hours tells a clear story: demand bottomed near 4,972 MW at 03:30 AEST, prices compressed to the low $100s and sub-$100 range, then morning ramp-up from 05:30 AEST pushed demand above 6,000 MW and prices back into the $140–$180/MWh band. The correlation is tight — each 1,000 MW step up in demand has been accompanied by roughly $60–80/MWh of price uplift through today's data.

The morning ramp is already underway. Demand is climbing at approximately 400 MW per 30-minute interval as residential heating loads engage in 9.8°C conditions with 100% cloud cover and zero solar contribution. With no solar offsetting load today — solar output sits at 0 MW and wind at just 91 MW — the grid is carrying near-full thermal commitment. Brown coal is supplying 3,994 MW and gas OCGT 681 MW, with renewables at just 3.21% of the mix. That generation stack leaves limited headroom for demand response without OCGT ramp or interconnector support, and any demand surprise will land directly on marginal gas-fired capacity.

Forecast prices signal a pronounced two-peak structure for the day. The model points to a first spike at 08:00 AEST ($233.86/MWh), climbing further through the morning into a sustained band of $218–$246/MWh from 09:00 to 10:30 AEST as demand approaches its working-day plateau near 7,800–8,000 MW. Prices are then forecast to ease through the midday period — briefly touching $180/MWh around 12:00 AEST — before a sharp secondary spike to $283.69/MWh at 13:00 AEST (23:00 UTC), which corresponds to the approach of the evening demand ramp. That $283/MWh print is the highest in the forecast horizon and will likely align with demand pushing back toward 7,500–8,000 MW as the winter evening heating load builds from around 19:00 AEST onward, consistent with the demand shape observed through the previous 24 hours.

Demand-side participants with load flexibility face a narrow window before prices escalate. The cheapest forecast intervals are 03:00–05:00 AEST tomorrow morning at $123–$131/MWh, and the late-evening window around 07:30–08:30 AEST this morning ($118/MWh forecast) has already closed. Today's active market notices carry no direct VIC demand constraints, though the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector constraint (N-BU_7118) on the NSW–SA flow path remains in force and limits the degree to which South Australian surplus can relieve Victorian pricing pressure. With temperatures peaking at only 12.9°C today and no wind recovery forecast, demand-driven price pressure is the dominant theme through to at least 21:00 AEST.