Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 23 June 2026
Victoria sits at $110.65/MWh with demand at 6,123 MW as of 06:25 AEST, well below the session peak of 8,140 MW reached during the morning peak around 19:25 AEST. That morning ramp — from roughly 4,860 MW at the 04:00 AEST trough up through 8,000+ MW by 18:30–19:25 AEST — drove prices from the high-$90s to $200–$220/MWh, with a brief spike to $256.69/MWh at 07:05 AEST. The current reading reflects the post-peak demand decline as the evening unwinds, with prices compressing back toward the $110/MWh range as load falls away.
The demand-price relationship today has been tight and predictable. Each 1,000 MW step up in demand through the morning corresponded to a $30–$60/MWh lift in spot price, with the clearest inflection point around 7,500 MW where prices broke above $190/MWh and held. Conversely, the rolloff from 8,040 MW to 6,123 MW since 19:55 AEST has pulled prices down roughly $100/MWh, illustrating high marginal cost sensitivity at the top of the dispatch stack. At 10.6°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 7.4, residential and commercial heating load is elevated for a mid-week winter evening but is now easing as the night progresses.
The forward price curve signals a significant second ramp ahead. Forecasts price the 07:30 AEST half-hour tomorrow at $328.96/MWh, with the 09:00 AEST slot reaching $448.87/MWh — the highest point in the visible forecast window. The profile implies AEMO's dispatch engine is anticipating a sharp morning demand surge comparable to today's, with supply tightness concentrated between 07:00 and 11:30 AEST (all intervals forecast above $246/MWh). Overnight intervals from 02:00 to 05:00 AEST are forecast at just $80.67/MWh, reflecting the demand trough where generation comfortably covers load. Traders with flexible load should note the $368/MWh spread between the overnight floor and the forecast 09:00 AEST peak.
One network factor worth tracking: the Dederang–Murray 1 330kV line returned to service at 15:15 AEST after a planned outage, removing constraint sets V-DBUSS_L and V-DDMS from the dispatch solution. The Buronga B Bus 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) affecting the Murraylink interconnector (V-S-MNSP1) remains active, which can limit Victorian import capability from South Australia and may contribute to tighter supply conditions during tomorrow's morning peak if interconnector support is constrained.