Commodity Demand — VIC1: Monday 22 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $144.08/MWh with demand at 6,483.89 MW as of 06:25 AEST, and both are rising. The trajectory over the past 30 minutes tells the story clearly: demand has climbed from 5,984 MW at 06:00 AEST with prices stepping up from $107.95/MWh in lockstep. This morning ramp is the standard winter heating-driven load build, with 6.8°C on the ground and a heating demand index of 11.2 — cold enough to sustain the lift through the morning peak. Today's pattern mirrors the shape seen in the price history: demand above ~7,500 MW consistently produced prices in the $230–$300/MWh band during the early-morning hours, while the midday trough (demand fell to ~5,100 MW between 17:00–18:00 AEST overnight) saw prices compress to the $75–$90/MWh range.

The forecast curve confirms the price pressure ahead. Prices are expected to reach $144.68/MWh by 07:00 AEST, step to $176.69/MWh by 07:30, and push to $188.69/MWh by 08:00 AEST as demand climbs through the 7,500–8,300 MW range that characterised this morning's peak in the history data. The sharpest forecast spike arrives at 09:00 AEST at $297.17/MWh, aligning with the period when demand consistently reached its daily maximum above 8,000 MW. A secondary peak is flagged at 06:00 AEST tonight at $297.17/MWh, again consistent with the evening demand rebuild. The price-to-demand relationship in Victoria is non-linear: each 500 MW increment above 7,500 MW pushes prices roughly $50–$80/MWh higher as peaking OCGT capacity — currently running at 855.78 MW — is drawn deeper into the merit order.

One structural factor dampening the ceiling today is the Murraylink outage (market notice 144321, invoked at 12:30 AEST yesterday). With the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector constrained, Victoria loses some flexibility to arbitrage with South Australia, which can tighten supply margins during peak periods and add upward price pressure if Victorian generation is already stretched. Demand-side managers should note that the lowest-cost load windows sit at 14:30–15:30 AEST ($80.67/MWh forecast) and 15:00–16:00 AEST ($82.99/MWh), representing savings of up to $217/MWh against the morning peak. The afternoon period from 00:30–01:30 AEST (14:30–15:30 local) offers the clearest shift opportunity before the evening demand ramp re-engages.