Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 24 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $171.95/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,410 MW and climbing. The demand trajectory over the past hour tells the core story: load has risen from 5,839 MW at 06:00 AEST to 6,410 MW now, a gain of roughly 570 MW in 25 minutes as Melbourne's winter morning ramp accelerates under 8.2°C ambient conditions with a heating demand index of 9.8. This morning's price-demand relationship is tightly coupled — the data shows prices held in the $110–$155/MWh band when demand sat below 5,200 MW during the overnight trough, then moved decisively above $145/MWh as load crossed 5,800 MW from 06:00 AEST. The morning peak earlier in the history data (06:00–09:00 AEST equivalent window, reaching 7,776 MW) drove sustained prices in the $296–$314/MWh range, establishing a clear price-demand threshold around the 7,200–7,500 MW mark where the marginal stack steepens sharply.

Forward forecasts signal the pressure is not easing. AEMO's dispatch forecasts price at $241.96/MWh by 07:00 AEST, $241.96/MWh at 08:00 AEST, and $241.96/MWh again at 09:00 AEST, with an $241.96/MWh forecast at 22:30 AEST marking the peak of the evening cycle. The forecast band through the 07:00–10:30 AEST window ranges $187–$242/MWh, consistent with demand expected to push back toward the 7,500–7,800 MW range seen during the prior morning peak. Gas OCGT is already dispatching 915.66 MW and brown coal sits at 3,675.63 MW, with wind contributing only 92.71 MW and solar effectively zero at 0.29 MW given overnight conditions — there is no variable renewable headroom to moderate the stack as demand rises.

The Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator constraint (N-BU_7118) affecting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector remains active per AEMO Market Notice 144333, limiting import flexibility from South Australia. This interconnector restriction reduces Victoria's ability to draw on out-of-region supply during the morning ramp, placing additional weight on in-region gas and coal to meet incremental demand — a factor that reinforces the upward price pressure already implied by the forecast stack. The lowest-cost window in today's outlook is 15:00–16:00 AEST (AEST equivalent of forecast 05:00–06:00 UTC) at approximately $98.67/MWh average, representing a $143/MWh discount to current pricing and the clearest opportunity for flexible load scheduling.