Commodity Demand — VIC1: Saturday 27 June 2026

$75.61/MWh at 6:25 AEST with demand at 5,352 MW — Victoria is in the post-overnight trough, sitting well below the 7,388 MW peak recorded at 7:50 AEST and the 6,722 MW evening peak reached around 8:35 AEST last night. The price-demand relationship across today's history is textbook: as demand climbed from the overnight low of ~4,545 MW (around 14:10 AEST overnight) toward the morning peak, prices moved from the high $80s–low $90s range up to $115–$127/MWh through the 17:00–18:50 AEST window. The sharpest price response came during the evening ramp, where demand surging past 6,700 MW pushed prices to $155–$187/MWh between 8:10 and 8:35 AEST last night. The current 5,352 MW load reflects the typical Sunday post-midnight lull, and at 5.4°C with 100% cloud cover and a heating demand index of 12.6, cold weather is the primary load driver — though the absence of wind (5.6 km/h, wind potential 0.3) is keeping wind generation at 1,055 MW, with the generation mix dominated by brown coal at 4,124 MW.

The forecast price trajectory tells a clear story about today's demand shape. Prices are expected to step up gradually through the morning — $78.85/MWh at 7:00 AEST, $93.76/MWh by 8:00 AEST — before holding in the $100–$108/MWh range through the 08:00–10:00 AEST morning peak window, consistent with demand rebuilding toward the 7,000+ MW levels seen during this morning's earlier peak. A notable spike to $140.34/MWh is forecast at 9:00 AEST, which warrants monitoring; at that demand level the market is pricing in tighter supply headroom. Prices then ease back through the midday period into the $77–$90/MWh range, before collapsing sharply in the afternoon: forecasts show $11–$50/MWh from 13:30 AEST through to 04:00 AEST, driven by today's partial clearing of cloud cover (max 14.8°C, avg solar potential 10.5) generating solar output that compresses midday pricing on this Sunday load profile.

The demand-side picture for today is shaped by two intersecting factors. First, being a Sunday, commercial and industrial load is structurally lower than weekday equivalents, which means the demand ceiling today is likely to sit below the 7,388 MW weekday peak even accounting for the cold minimum of 5.2°C. Second, the heating demand signal (12.6) confirms residential heating load is active and will drive the morning ramp as households wake, but the modest wind resource (avg wind potential 0.2 today) limits any offset from that fuel type. The net effect is a day where the morning peak period — roughly 07:00 to 10:00 AEST — carries the most price risk, the $140/MWh forecast at 09:00 AEST being the key exposure window, followed by a prolonged low-price period through the afternoon that represents a significant load-shifting opportunity at sub-$15/MWh forecast