Commodity Demand — VIC1: Wednesday 1 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$6.51/MWh at 6:25am AEST, with demand at 5,681 MW and climbing as the morning ramp gets underway. Overnight demand troughed near 4,540 MW around 2-3am, and the negative pricing that dominated from roughly 10:30am through to the current interval reflects that trough combined with strong wind output — wind generation is currently supplying 3,606 MW, more than the current brown coal contribution of 2,845 MW, pushing renewable penetration to 53% and carbon intensity down to 0.568 tCO2/MWh.
Price sensitivity to demand in Victoria today is sharp and non-linear. Yesterday's trading pattern shows the mechanism clearly: demand climbing from 6,600 MW to 7,000-7,500 MW through the 6-9am window drove prices from $10-38/MWh up to a peak of $153.23/MWh at 9:20am as the system approached tighter reserve margins, before collapsing back to single digits within 30 minutes as demand eased. A similar but smaller spike hit $119-153/MWh band around the 9am ramp. This confirms VIC1 pricing is highly elastic to marginal demand once total demand pushes above roughly 6,900-7,000 MW, likely reflecting the point where brown coal and gas peaking units set the marginal price.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for today points to a repeat pattern: overnight negative-to-flat pricing continuing into the pre-dawn hours (forecast RRP -$7 to -$1/MWh through to 6am), then a morning ramp lifting prices to $23-31/MWh by 7-8am as demand rises, followed by a moderate midday easing to near-zero or negative again by noon-1pm as solar and wind output build (weather outlook shows wind potential at 17.5% today, cloud cover 88%, limiting solar contribution). No further sharp price spikes above $30/MWh are currently forecast through the day, suggesting today's ramp may be less severe than yesterday's 9am event, provided wind generation holds near current levels.
On the demand-side and market notice front, there's nothing material directly constraining Victorian demand today — the active notices are dominated by SA voltage-control directions (Barker Inlet, Torrens Island) and SA reserve (LOR1/LOR2) warnings for 3-5 July, plus a completed VIC trans