Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 30 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $10.50/MWh against a total demand of 5,498 MW at 06:25 AEST — a sharp contrast to the overnight peak where demand climbed to 7,598 MW at 17:55 AEST with prices sustaining above $200/MWh for extended intervals between 11:45 and 13:30 AEST. That overnight demand curve, driven by winter heating loads at 11.7°C with a heating demand index of 6.3, delivered a textbook cold-weather evening ramp: demand lifted from a trough near 4,515 MW at 03:55 AEST to a 7,599 MW peak across the 17:30–18:10 AEST window, with prices tracking the ascent from near-zero into the $218–$249/MWh range. The price-demand relationship through that period was tight — every 500 MW increment above 7,000 MW corresponded to a step-change in price as marginal generators cleared the stack.

Demand is now rising from the overnight trough, with the trajectory consistent with a standard winter morning ramp. The forecast for today points to a similar demand shape: prices are expected to hold near floor through the early hours (forecasts show $10.50/MWh or below from 20:30 through to 07:00 AEST), before a modest morning pickup to $58–$74/MWh in the 07:30–09:00 AEST window as commercial and industrial load comes on. The solar contribution today is minimal — maximum temperature forecast of 15.4°C and 90% average cloud cover suppress both solar output and cooling load, meaning the grid relies on dispatchable sources and wind (currently generating 3,200 MW) to meet the morning ramp without the solar offset that moderates demand in warmer months.

The afternoon and early evening period carries the most significant price exposure today. Forecasts show prices retreating to near-zero and into negative territory from 13:00 through 18:00 AEST ($-7.47/MWh at the 17:30 trough) as wind generation sustains output into the demand valley. However, from 19:30 AEST onward, demand begins its winter evening ramp back above 5,000 MW, and the price trajectory from recent history — particularly the $150–$249/MWh range seen between midnight and 03:30 AEST — signals that late-evening exposure is the primary risk window for today's trading day. Demand-side participants have a clear arbitrage opportunity: shift flexible load into the 14:00–18:00 AEST window (negative to low single-digit pricing) and away from the post-20:00 AEST ramp where prices are already tracking back above $10/MWh and the overnight heating load cycle is set to repeat.