Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 10 July 2026
Victoria spot price sits at $6.62/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 5,392 MW, well below the overnight peak of 8,600 MW recorded around 08:30 AEST yesterday evening (local time equivalent 22:25). The current price reflects the tail end of an extended low-demand window: since 05:20 AEST prices have been pinned between -$1.10 and $0.16/MWh for over ten hours as demand drifted down from the mid-morning peak near 8,190 MW (07:35 AEST) to current levels. This is a wide swing — a roughly 3,200 MW demand contraction (38%) has taken prices from a morning peak of $160.98/MWh down to near-zero and negative territory, illustrating VIC1's steep price-demand curve at this time of year.
Demand sensitivity is pronounced: each 500-1,000 MW shift in load through the morning ramp (06:00-08:00 AEST) drove price movements of $20-40/MWh, with the sharpest single-interval jump at 07:45 AEST ($160.98/MWh on 8,120 MW). Once demand dropped below roughly 6,000 MW after 14:00 AEST, prices collapsed to single digits and then negative, coinciding with wind generation holding above 3,300 MW and minimal underlying thermal displacement need.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a further demand-driven price path today: forecast RRP eases to $33-37/MWh through 07:00-07:30 AEST (07:00-07:30 local), climbs modestly to $45-48/MWh across the 08:00-10:30 AEST window as morning load builds, then fades back toward zero and negative by early afternoon (13:00-14:30 AEST) and stays negative into the evening (as low as -$5/MWh by 18:00 AEST forecast). This matches the identified low-price windows overnight (01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow), each offering ~$49/MWh savings versus peak, all clustered around minimal-carbon periods with near-zero renewable curtailment risk flagged as "low". No demand-side constraints are active in VIC1 today — the most recent reserve notice (LOR1, 08 July) was cancelled, and current generation mix (wind 3,350 MW, brown coal 3,285 MW) comfortably covers the 5,392 MW load with no inter-regional transfer limitations reported.