Commodity Demand — VIC1: Sunday 12 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$1.15/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,058 MW, still within the overnight trough band after demand bottomed near 4,680 MW around 04:40-05:00 AEST (17:40-18:00 UTC on the 12th). The region has been running negative-to-flat pricing for most of the past six hours as wind generation (3,232 MW) combined with minimal overnight demand kept the market oversupplied — brown coal (3,738 MW) is holding baseload while solar remains at zero ahead of sunrise. Demand is now climbing out of the overnight low as the morning ramp begins, and price sensitivity is evident: every 300-400 MW step up in demand over the past two hours has been accompanied by a swing from negative pricing into the $20-60/MWh range, with brief spikes to $86.67/MWh when demand punched through 6,300 MW in the 01:30-01:40 UTC window.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a firming morning peak, with forecast RRP climbing to $24.46/MWh by 07:00 AEST, $31.98/MWh by 08:00 AEST, and a sustained band of $30-37/MWh through the 08:00-10:30 AEST period — consistent with the historical pattern already visible in yesterday's data, where demand pushed to a daily high near 7,840 MW around 07:55-08:00 AEST and pricing held in the $30-48/MWh range for nearly three hours. Today's demand trajectory should mirror this shape given near-identical weather (11.5°C, 82% cloud cover, heating demand at 6.5), with the morning heating load likely to push total demand back toward 7,800 MW by mid-morning. Traders should expect the price floor to lift out of negative territory within the next 1-2 trading intervals as demand crosses the 6,500-7,000 MW threshold, based on the tight correlation observed overnight.
The AEMO forecast then shows prices retreating through midday into a second negative patch from 23:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow (equivalent to the 13:00-19:00 AEST window today), settling around -$1 to -$7/MWh as demand eases and renewable output (wind plus rising solar) again outpaces load — a pattern that matches yesterday's afternoon trough, where demand fell to 4,680 MW and prices sat between -$5 and -$7/MWh