Commodity Demand — VIC1: Friday 17 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $110.40/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,821 MW and climbing as the morning ramp builds momentum. Overnight demand troughed around 4,555-4,600 MW between 04:00-05:00 AEST, coinciding with sub-$40/MWh pricing (briefly touching $20.44/MWh at 05:10), before the classic morning ramp pushed demand up over 1,200 MW in the space of two hours. Price sensitivity to demand is pronounced this morning: as load moved from 5,730 MW to 6,756 MW between 06:00-06:55 AEST, prices jumped from $91.14/MWh to a peak of $156.60/MWh — a clear illustration of the steep segment of Victoria's supply curve engaging as brown coal and gas plant ramp to meet the demand step-change.
Today's demand trajectory points to a morning peak near 7,600-7,700 MW around 08:00-09:00 AEST, based on yesterday's comparable pattern where demand hit 7,858 MW with prices holding in the $95-131/MWh band. AEMO's dispatch forecasts back this up, showing forecast RRP climbing to $124.38/MWh by 22:00 AEST tonight before easing. A secondary evening peak is likely between 17:00-19:00 AEST as heating demand returns with the temperature outlook showing a cold start (6°C currently, minimum 5.7°C overnight) and heating demand index at 12 — elevated residential and commercial heating load will keep pressure on the evening block. Forecast prices for the 21:00-22:30 AEST window sit at $108-124/MWh, consistent with this demand-driven tightening.
Demand-side risk factors are limited today: no active LOR (lack of reserve) notices for Victoria, and the only relevant market notice is a settlement residue variation on the VIC-SA interconnector from mid-July, now resolved. The overnight low-price window (01:00-05:00 AEST tonight) offers the best load-shifting opportunity, with forecast RRP sitting at $35-41/MWh — a saving of $85-91/MWh versus this morning's peak pricing. Wind generation is currently modest at 460 MW and cloud cover sits at 85%, meaning solar contribution will stay minimal through the morning ramp, leaving thermal generation (brown coal at 4