Commodity Demand — VIC1: Tuesday 14 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $77.43/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 6,414 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. Overnight demand troughed near 5,100-5,300 MW between 12:45-13:30 AEST, coinciding with negative prices as low as -$53.59/MWh, before the morning ramp pushed demand from ~6,050 MW at 04:05 AEST to over 7,800 MW by 08:00-09:00 AEST, driving prices into the $60-75/MWh band for a sustained four-hour window. The relationship is tight: every 500-700 MW demand increment through the overnight-to-morning transition added roughly $15-25/MWh to spot price, consistent with brown coal and limited wind/hydro flexibility setting the marginal cost curve at these load levels.
The forecast trajectory today is the key story for traders. AEMO's forward curve shows prices holding in the $80-90/MWh range through the evening peak (target 20:00-22:00 AEST at $80.50-88.85/MWh), easing into the $30-70/MWh band overnight, then spiking sharply from 16:30 AEST (06:30 UTC) tomorrow morning — forecast RRP jumps to $190.48/MWh at 16:30, $190.98/MWh at 17:00, and peaks at $279/MWh around 21:00 AEST tomorrow. This reflects an expected demand surge into tomorrow's morning peak combined with a cold outlook (7.1-15°C range, heating demand at 10.5 currently) that will keep thermal load elevated and constrain renewable output, with solar potential low at 5.2 and wind potential minimal at 0.6 for tomorrow.
On the demand side, current generation mix shows brown coal supplying 4,575 MW against total demand of 6,414 MW, with wind contributing 1,957 MW and negligible solar given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 30.36% with carbon intensity at 0.8496 tCO2/MWh, both trending lower as coal's share increases through the demand ramp. No load-shedding or reserve notices are active for VIC1 specifically, though the TAS1 Gordon-Chapel St 220kV lightning reclassification remains in effect, which could tighten Basslink-related interconnector flexibility if Victorian demand needs supplementary support during the evening peak.