Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 17 July 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $110.40/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 5,821 MW. The 24-hour range spans a low of $20.44/MWh overnight (05:10-05:15) to a peak of $156.60/MWh during the early morning ramp at 06:55, reflecting typical overnight-to-morning demand build. Prices have been oscillating in the $95-135/MWh band through the morning as demand climbed from a low of ~4,600 MW around 04:00 to a mid-morning high near 7,700 MW at 08:45.

Generation mix is currently dominated by brown coal at 4,702 MW, the clear backbone of supply. Gas OCGT contributes 410 MW, battery storage is discharging at 393 MW, wind is at 460 MW, and hydro adds 48 MW. Solar output is at 0 MW, consistent with the pre-dawn interval and today's forecast of just 10.3% average solar potential with 46% cloud cover. Renewable penetration sits at 15% for the current interval, down from an overnight peak near 21-24% between 08:30-10:00 yesterday, as wind generation eases off. Carbon intensity is at 0.9982 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the middle of its 24-hour range (0.869 to 1.070 tCO2/MWh), with the lowest intensity typically coinciding with stronger wind output overnight.

Predispatch forecasts show prices holding in the $115-125/MWh range through the next two hours to 22:00 AEST, before easing sharply overnight — dropping to $80.41/MWh by 23:00 and falling below $45/MWh from midnight through to 06:00 AEST tomorrow, bottoming near $35.94/MWh in the 04:00-05:00 window. This aligns with today's identified low-price/low-carbon load-shifting windows between 01:00 and 06:00 AEST, each offering $85-91/MWh savings versus current peak pricing. Prices are then forecast to climb back above $110/MWh from 08:00 AEST tomorrow as morning demand builds again, with a secondary peak near $127/MWh forecast for 10:30 AEST.

On notices, AEMO has flagged planned MarketNet maintenance affecting Sydney-based connections on 29 July (07:00-19:00 AEST), with brief 1-3 second service disruptions expected — particip