Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 11 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at -$1.15/MWh at 06:25 AEST, sitting within a band that's held negative to low-single-digits through most of the overnight period. The past 24 hours show a wide swing — prices spiked to $97.30/MWh briefly around 09:55 AEST yesterday evening on a tight supply interval, then a second smaller spike to $54.11/MWh near 17:10 AEST during the evening ramp, before settling back into negative territory as wind generation firmed overnight. Demand currently sits at 5,256 MW, down from the ~7,500 MW peak recorded mid-morning.
Generation mix at the 06:00 AEST interval shows wind leading at 3,497 MW, followed by brown coal at 3,045 MW. Hydro, battery, gas OCGT, gas CCGT and solar are all near zero, with solar output not yet contributing ahead of sunrise. Total renewable penetration reads 53.48%, consistent with the overnight wind-driven pattern, and carbon intensity sits at 0.5675 tCO2/MWh — down from a mid-morning peak above 0.70 tCO2/MWh recorded yesterday when wind output eased and coal/gas covered a larger demand share. Today's weather outlook shows moderate wind potential (10.2) and low solar potential (1.3) with 76% cloud cover, suggesting wind remains the dominant renewable contributor through the day rather than rooftop or utility solar.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding negative to flat through the early morning trading blocks, then lifting as demand ramps: forecast RRP reaches $30.04/MWh by 07:00 AEST, climbing to a peak near $38.49/MWh around 11:00 AEST before easing back through the afternoon and turning negative again by 16:30-18:00 AEST as demand tapers. This pattern aligns with typical Sunday load shape and the identified low-price windows overnight (02:00-06:30 AEST) and again 17:00-18:00 AEST, each offering $40-44/MWh savings versus peak for flexible load.
On notices, AEMO cancelled the reclassification of the Eildon PS–Mt Beauty 220 kV double-circuit contingency (lightning-related) as of 00:04 AEST, reverting it to non-credible status — no constraint sets remain in effect from that event. Separately, both the Red