Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 13 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $0/MWh at 06:25 AEST, sitting at the bottom of a volatile 24-hour band that swung from -$757.07/MWh overnight (00:15 AEST, driven by wind oversupply) to $283.83/MWh during this morning's demand ramp around 08:20 AEST. Demand currently reads 6,022 MW, up from an overnight trough near 4,700-4,900 MW through the 04:00-05:00 AEST low-demand window. The past 24 hours show a classic pattern: negative-to-low prices overnight and midday, sharp price spikes during the 17:00-19:00 AEST evening ramp (peaks of $209-$247/MWh between 17:00-17:35 AEST) as solar drops off and demand climbs.
Generation mix at the 20:00 AEST interval is running near-evenly split between brown coal (3,297 MW) and wind (3,278 MW), with minor hydro (30 MW) and battery (1.3 MW) contributions. Solar and both gas categories (OCGT, CCGT) are at zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and light overnight gas dispatch. Renewable penetration sits at 50.1%, and carbon intensity reads 0.6089 tCO2/MWh — both near the middle of today's range, which has oscillated between 41-53% renewables and 0.57-0.72 tCO2/MWh depending on wind output and coal dispatch levels.
Predispatch forecasts show prices firming through the morning: $30.96/MWh by 07:00 AEST, climbing to $80/MWh through the 08:00-09:00 AEST block, then peaking near $88-92/MWh between 10:00-11:30 AEST as the solar trough coincides with rising demand. Prices ease back through the afternoon to $19/MWh by 16:00-16:30 AEST before falling to $10.50/MWh overnight. Weather supports this trajectory — solar potential today averages just 10.2% under 27% cloud cover, with wind potential at 6.5%, both modest, meaning coal and interconnector flows will carry more of the midday load than typical winter days with clearer skies.
On notices, Victoria's transmission links to South Australia remain under negative settlement residue constraints (NRM_VIC1_SA1), reflecting persistent negative price spillover on that interconnector; this constraint has been toggling