Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 10 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $6.62/MWh at 06:25 AEST, a dramatic reversal from the $130-160/MWh peaks recorded through Thursday evening's demand ramp. Overnight prices collapsed through negative territory (-$1.10/MWh) between 04:00 and 06:00 AEST as low overnight demand (around 5,000 MW) met sustained wind output, before beginning to recover into the early morning ramp. Total demand currently reads 5,392 MW, well below the 8,600 MW evening peak seen Thursday.
Generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows wind leading at 3,350 MW, followed closely by brown coal at 3,285 MW, with hydro contributing 41 MW and battery output a modest 9 MW. Solar and gas (both OCGT and CCGT) are sitting at zero, consistent with pre-dawn conditions. This mix puts renewable penetration at 50.86%, though this reflects the high-wind overnight window rather than sustained daytime conditions — renewable share has been climbing steadily from 18% at 07:00 Thursday evening to over 50% now. Carbon intensity has fallen accordingly to 0.5995 tCO2/MWh, down from a Thursday evening peak of 0.93 tCO2/MWh.
Predispatch forecasts point to a mixed day ahead: prices firm to $33-45/MWh through the 07:00-09:30 AEST window as morning demand builds, before a stronger climb to $45-48/MWh around 10:00-10:30 AEST. Prices then ease back toward $27-40/MWh into early afternoon, with a sharp collapse forecast from 14:30 AEST (dropping to $1.16/MWh) through negative territory (-$1 to -$5/MWH) for the remainder of the afternoon and evening as wind generation and mild demand combine. Today's weather outlook supports this — wind potential averages 15.4% with 85% cloud cover, capping solar contribution near 2.4%, while a top of 13.8°C keeps heating demand modest.
No active reserve or intervention notices currently affect VIC1. The most recent VIC-specific item was Thursday's Heywood-Mortlake No. 2 500kV line outage, resolved within 14 minutes with no lasting constraint impact. Traders should note the AEMO Non-Conformance notice on unit GANN