Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 29 June 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $110.50/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 5,703 MW and climbing as the morning progresses. That current price is well above the overnight trough — prices dipped into the low-$70s/MWh around 06:30–07:00 AEST and ran as high as $201.50/MWh during the 17:00–18:00 AEST morning peak window, reflecting the typical winter dual-peak profile. The 24-hour price average across the history dataset sits in the $105–110/MWh range, confirming the current interval is broadly in line with sustained elevated conditions rather than a transient spike.
The generation mix is brown coal dominant: 4,082.66 MW from brown coal accounts for approximately 74% of in-region output at the latest interval (06:30 AEST). Wind is contributing 975.76 MW (roughly 18%), gas OCGT is dispatched at 404.24 MW (7%), battery storage is net generating at 51.65 MW, and hydro provides 16.02 MW. Solar is at 0 MW — 100% cloud cover and a solar potential score of zero confirm no rooftop or utility contribution at this hour. Renewable penetration sits at 18.87% and carbon intensity is 0.9482 tCO2/MWh, the highest point in the 24-hour record. That compares to a low of 0.6765 tCO2/MWh recorded around 08:00 AEST when wind penetration was stronger and demand lower — sustainability managers should note the current grid state reflects a typical winter morning combination of low wind output relative to peak demand, with no solar offset.
The predispatch curve signals a sustained and significant price escalation through today. From the current $110.50/MWh, forecasts rise to $147.96/MWh by 08:00 AEST, peak at $244.16/MWh in the 11:30–12:00 AEST window (22:00–22:30 UTC), and remain above $200/MWh through to approximately 13:00 AEST. Prices then ease progressively, dropping below $100/MWh by 21:00 AEST and collapsing to $10–15/MWh between 02:00–04:00 AEST tomorrow as overnight demand softens. The optimal flexible load windows are 03:00–05:00 AEST tomorrow ($11–12/MWh average), offering savings of over $230/MWh against the forecast peak. Weather supports the elevated demand profile today — temperature is 13.1°C with 100% cloud cover, a heating demand index of 4.9, and winds at 14.3 km/h, consistent with a cold overcast Melbourne winter day and sustained residential and commercial heating load.
Two active market notices are directly relevant to interconnector flows affecting Victoria. The Balranald–Buronga X3 220kV line outage (notice 144355, N-BABU constraint invoked) has been extended to 01:00 AEST 30 June, constraining NSW–VIC transfer capacity on the V-S-MNSP1 path through the overnight period. Separately, the Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV isolator rating change (notices 144329/144332) was cancelled at 01