Regional Outlook — VIC1: Thursday 25 June 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $148.84/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 6,218 MW and rising. This is materially softer than the overnight peak, which ran persistently above $200/MWh between 07:00 and 09:00 AEST — touching $244.92/MWh at 07:45 — before demand and prices eased through the midday trough. The 24-hour average across the history window has tracked around $150–160/MWh, placing the current reading broadly in line with the daily mean, though the direction of travel from here is firmly upward.
The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 3,994 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 681 MW. Wind is producing 91 MW and hydro 64 MW. Solar output is zero, consistent with the pre-dawn window and today's fully overcast conditions (100% cloud cover, 9.8°C). Renewable penetration sits at just 3.21% — a sharp decline from the overnight range of 18–25% when wind was more active — and carbon intensity has climbed to 1.1004 tCO2/MWh, the highest recorded in the dataset. The OCGT fleet is carrying significant load to support dispatch, while battery and gas CCGT units are currently offline.
Predispatch forecasts signal a pronounced escalation through the morning trading window. Prices are forecast to clear around $132/MWh at 07:00 AEST before climbing sharply: $177/MWh by 07:30, $234/MWh at 08:00, and peaking near $246/MWh across the 09:30–10:00 AEST window. A secondary peak of $284/MWh is forecast at 09:00 AEST local (13:00 UTC), before prices retreat to the floor band of ~$122–123/MWh through the afternoon. The morning peak is consistent with a typical winter weekday demand ramp, amplified by cold temperatures and negligible solar. Flexible load operators should note the $124/MWh window available in the 13:00–14:00 AEST slot as the most cost-effective off-peak opportunity today.
On market notices, the active constraint most relevant to VIC flows is the Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV Isolator rating change (Notice 144329/144332), which continues to limit capacity on the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector — constraining Murraylink transfer capability between VIC and SA. This reduces Victoria's ability to draw from or export to SA and is a live factor in today's dispatch. A non-conformance event for YWPS4 (Yallourn) was recorded on 18 June, though that unit appears to be operating normally in current dispatch. No reserve notices are active for VIC. MTPASA published 23 June identifies no low reserve conditions across the outlook period.