Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 24 June 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $171.95/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with total demand at 6,410 MW and climbing as the morning ramp accelerates. That current price sits well below the peak seen through the 17:00–19:00 AEST window where prices consistently printed between $280–$315/MWh, but the trajectory over the past 30 minutes is upward — from $135.72/MWh at 06:10 to $177.12/MWh at 06:20 before the current read. The overnight trough was around $80.50/MWh (03:50 AEST) and the session low was the mid-$96/MWh cluster around 05:00 AEST, giving a rough 24-hour average in the $175–$185/MWh range once peak-period prints are weighted in. Grid stress sits at 62.2 on gridIQ's composite score, reflecting the tightening supply-demand balance as heating demand builds on an 8.2°C morning with winds near calm.
The generation mix at 06:00 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 3,676 MW, gas OCGT at 916 MW, wind at 93 MW, hydro at 62 MW, battery discharge at 75 MW, and solar at a negligible 0.3 MW — consistent with a deep-winter, pre-dawn profile. Renewable penetration sits at just 4.77% and carbon intensity is 1.0535 tCO2/MWh, the highest point across the 24-hour data set. Carbon intensity was materially lower overnight — tracking 0.77–0.88 tCO2/MWh between 21:00 and 23:00 AEST — when wind was contributing closer to 28–32% of supply. That wind output has collapsed through the day as wind potential reads near zero, and today's outlook shows average wind potential of 0.1 with 75% cloud cover, meaning solar generation will also remain minimal. Sustainability managers should note the intensity profile is unlikely to improve materially until wind conditions change later in the forecast window.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp escalation through this morning's peak. Prices are forecast at $241.96/MWh for the 07:00 AEST half-hour, holding in the $236–$247/MWh band through to 09:00 AEST, with $241.96/MWh again at 08:30 AEST. A brief mid-morning easing is forecast before another spike — $283.69/MWh is flagged at the 22:30 AEST half-hour (12:30 UTC). Prices are then forecast to ease progressively through the afternoon and evening, reaching a low of $97.05/MWh around 15:30 AEST, before recovering to $193.54/MWh by 18:00 AEST. The optimal load windows for large consumers are the 15:00–16:00 AEST block (forecast ~$99/MWh average) and 14:00–15:00 AEST (~$106/MWh), saving in the order of $178–$185/MWh against forecast peak exposure.
On active market notices, the most relevant for Victorian flows is the ongoing Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV Isolator constraint