Regional Outlook — VIC1: Monday 22 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $144.08/MWh at 06:25 AEST with total demand at 6,484 MW — a marked step-down from the evening peak, where prices repeatedly tested the $290–$300/MWh range between 08:00 and 09:00 AEST and demand pushed above 8,300 MW. The overnight period (roughly 12:00–03:00 AEST) saw prices compress into the $80–$115/MWh band as demand fell away, before the morning ramp reasserted upward pressure from around 04:30 AEST. The current price is climbing back toward that morning peak territory as demand builds through the residential and commercial morning load.

The generation mix at 06:25 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 4,200 MW (64.8% of local dispatch), gas OCGT at 856 MW (13.2%), wind at 1,236 MW (19.0%), hydro at 67 MW (1.0%), with battery contributing a negligible 0.6 MW and solar effectively zero at 0.08 MW — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 20.49%, tracking the wind contribution almost entirely given the absence of solar on a 6.8°C winter morning with heating demand at 11.2°C-equivalent. Carbon intensity is 0.8933 tCO2/MWh, which has been relatively stable across the day, ranging from a low of around 0.77 tCO2/MWh in the early hours (when wind was stronger relative to demand) to a high near 1.03 tCO2/MWh during yesterday's evening peak when wind penetration dropped to around 8%. Wind potential is rated at just 1 out of scale today and forecast to remain subdued through the week, with cloud cover building to 43% tomorrow and averaging above 70% through 24–27 June — solar generation will remain minimal across the outlook period.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding near $145/MWh at 07:00 AEST before lifting to $177/MWh by 07:30 and $189–$190/MWh through 08:00–08:30 AEST as the morning peak load window firms. A notable spike to $297/MWh is forecast for 09:00 AEST, easing to the $257–$267/MWh range across 09:30–10:30 AEST and tapering toward $177–$243/MWh through midday. A second $297/MWh forecast appears at 06:00 AEST tomorrow (Tuesday morning), consistent with the pattern seen this morning. The afternoon and evening soften materially, with prices forecast below $115/MWh from 15:00 AEST onwards and dipping as low as $70/MWh at 05:00 AEST — the cheapest load window of the 24-hour cycle. Flexible load operators should note the 14:30–15:30 AEST window at around $76–$83/MWh as the best price opportunity for today.

Two market notices directly affect Victorian interconnector conditions. Murraylink (V-S-MNSP1) has a planned short-notice outage active from 12:30 AEST today, invoking constraint set I-MURRAYLINK and affecting both the VIC–NSW and