Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 23 June 2026

The Victoria spot price sits at $110.65/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, demand at 6,123 MW — well below the evening peak of 8,140 MW recorded around 19:25–19:30 AEST. Tracing the 24-hour price history, Victoria ran a sustained elevated band through the morning peak (07:30–09:00 AEST, $177–$220/MWh) before easing through the midday and afternoon trough (14:00–18:00 AEST, largely $100–$111/MWh) and recovering modestly through the post-sunset ramp. The current $110.65/MWh sits broadly in line with that afternoon floor, reflecting demand that is still climbing off its overnight base.

The current generation mix at the 06:00 AEST trading interval shows brown coal contributing 4,175 MW (roughly 71% of local dispatch), gas OCGT at 650 MW (11%), wind at 961 MW (16%), hydro at 62 MW (1%), and battery at 17 MW. Solar is generating 0 MW — consistent with the 100% cloud cover and pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 17.72%, tracking the lowest levels observed in today's data set; earlier in the overnight period (around 22:00–23:00 AEST) renewables reached 31–32% on stronger wind output. Carbon intensity is currently 0.9407 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.7426 tCO2/MWh reached around 22:55 AEST overnight. The trend through the day shows a clear correlation: as wind output softened and demand increased through the evening, intensity climbed from the 0.74–0.76 range toward the current 0.94 level.

Predispatch forecasts present a sharply escalating price profile through the morning peak. From the current sub-$150/MWh level, prices are forecast to reach $256/MWh by 18:00 AEST, spike to $329/MWh at 18:30 AEST, and remain elevated in the $297–$449/MWh range through 19:00–21:30 AEST, with the 20:00 AEST half-hour forecast reaching $449/MWh — the highest point in the predispatch outlook. Prices are then forecast to unwind through the late evening ($153–$176/MWh by 10:00–10:30 AEST) before settling back to the $80–$81/MWh floor between 12:00–14:00 AEST (overnight), recovering to $90–$153/MWh from 15:30–17:30 AEST as the following morning ramp begins. The optimal demand-shifting window falls between 12:00–14:00 AEST (overnight, today's date), where forecast prices hold at $80.67/MWh — a saving of approximately $368/MWh versus the forecast peak.

Two active inter-regional transfer notices are relevant to VIC1 flows. Market Notice 144329 advises a short-notice rating change on the Buronga B Bus 7118 220kV Isolator, with constraint set N-BU_7118 invoked — impacting the V-S-MNSP1 interconnector (Victoria–South Australia