Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 21 June 2026

The Victorian spot price sits at $146.23/MWh at 06:25 AEST, with demand at 6,384 MW and climbing into the Monday morning peak. That current price represents a marked step-up from the overnight trough — intervals between 12:00–14:00 AEST ran in the $38–$57/MWh range — but the trajectory through the past two hours has been sharply upward, from $102/MWh at 06:05 AEST to the current level. Note that AEMO has five active "Prices Subject to Review" notices covering the 06:15–06:35 AEST intervals under Clause 3.9.2B (Manifestly Incorrect Inputs); the 06:10 interval has since been confirmed unchanged, but traders should treat current and recent prices with caution until remaining reviews resolve.

The generation mix is heavily weighted toward brown coal, which is producing 4,322 MW — approximately 83% of local supply. Gas OCGT is contributing 764 MW (15%), with hydro at 65 MW, wind at just 11 MW, battery at 3 MW, and solar effectively zero at this pre-dawn winter hour. Renewable penetration sits at 1.54%, the lowest point in the 24-hour dataset; overnight wind was providing up to 20% renewable share during the 01:00–02:00 AEST window but has dropped sharply. Carbon intensity is 1.1169 tCO2/MWh, up from a daily low of around 0.94 tCO2/MWh in the early hours when wind output was higher. With wind output at 11 MW against an installed Victorian capacity well above 2,000 MW, the virtual absence of wind generation is a key driver of both the mix and intensity figures today.

Predispatch forecasts, issued at 06:01 AEST, point to a severe escalation through the morning peak. Prices are forecast to reach $191/MWh by 07:00 AEST, $284/MWh by 07:30, $511/MWh by 08:00, and peak at $653/MWh in the 08:30–09:00 AEST window before stepping down to $340/MWh by 09:00 and $298/MWh by 09:30 AEST. A secondary high of $449/MWh is forecast at 10:00 AEST, with prices remaining elevated — $307–$359/MWh — through to around 12:00 AEST (22:00–02:00 UTC). The afternoon sees a substantial retreat, with forecasts returning to the $87–$107/MWh range from 13:30 AEST onward. The morning peak is consistent with cold-weather heating demand on a Monday, with today's maximum of 12.9°C and overnight temperature of 7.1°C sustaining a heating demand index of 10.9 and near-zero solar and wind potential.

Market participants should also note an active inter-regional transfer constraint on the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors following the short-notice outage of the Roseworthy–Templers 132 kV line in South Australia (constraint set S-TPRS invoked at 19:30 AEST). This limits Victoria's export flexibility to SA, which may contribute to price pressure if SA draws