Regional Outlook — VIC1: Saturday 27 June 2026
The Victoria spot price sits at $75.61/MWh as of 06:25 AEST, a significant pullback from the elevated levels seen during last night's evening peak, when prices ran as high as $187.69/MWh between 08:10–08:15 AEST (22:10–22:15 UTC). The 24-hour price trajectory tells a clear story: prices surged from around $115/MWh at 06:35 AEST through a sustained band of $135–$160/MWh across the 07:00–09:00 AEST window, before easing steadily through the morning as demand fell away from its overnight peak of approximately 7,389 MW (around 17:50 AEST). Demand currently sits at 5,352 MW, consistent with a mild winter Sunday morning. Current temperatures are 5.4°C with full cloud cover and a heating demand index of 12.6, but with light winds at 5.6 km/h the cold snap is not severe enough to push demand sharply higher at this hour.
The generation mix as of 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 4,124 MW, with wind contributing 1,055 MW, gas OCGT at 136 MW, hydro at 38 MW, battery at 0.15 MW, and solar at zero — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 20.42%, with wind accounting for essentially all of that contribution given the absence of solar output. Carbon intensity is 0.9564 tCO2/MWh, up from the intraday low of around 0.74 tCO2/MWh recorded near 18:25 AEST when renewables briefly reached 34% penetration on strong wind output across the morning trading period. Today's outlook for solar is marginally better — forecast maximum temperature of 14.8°C and average solar potential of 10.5 — but with average cloud cover at 41% and wind potential very low (0.2), significant wind generation uplift is not expected during daylight hours.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steady price climb through tonight. Prices are forecast to hold in the $79–$94/MWh range through 08:00–09:00 AEST, before a notable spike to $140.34/MWh is flagged for 09:00 AEST, likely reflecting the Sunday evening demand ramp. Prices then ease back to $80.50/MWh by 09:30 AEST. Through the overnight low-demand window — roughly 12:00 to 04:00 AEST tomorrow — forecasts drop sharply, with prices bottoming between $10.50/MWh and $52.90/MWh across the 00:30–05:30 AEST window. This represents a substantial arbitrage and load-shifting opportunity, with the deepest forecast prices around $10.50/MWh between 02:30–04:00 AEST, saving approximately $130/MWh against today's peak. Demand response and battery charging operators should note this window. The morning ramp then reasserts, with prices forecast to recover to $100–$108/MWh by 17:00–18:00 AEST.
On market notices, there are no active reserve or constraint notices directly affecting Victoria today. The SA LOR2 declared for 30 June (08:00–