Regional Outlook — VIC1: Friday 26 June 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $115.14/MWh at 06:25 AEST, a significant step down from the overnight and morning peaks that ranged broadly between $165–$244/MWh through the 07:00–22:00 AEST window. Demand sits at 5,494 MW, well below the session high of approximately 7,914 MW recorded around 08:25 AEST, reflecting the typical Saturday evening trough. The 24-hour price profile was characterised by a pronounced morning ramp from around $71/MWh at 14:30 AEST through to a peak of $244.45/MWh at 22:30 AEST, followed by a sustained evening plateau above $165/MWh before easing sharply into the current interval. Tonight's conditions represent the low end of today's pricing range.

The generation mix at 06:30 AEST is dominated by brown coal at 4,111 MW (approximately 79% of the 5,077 MW total local dispatch), with gas OCGT contributing 654 MW (13%), wind 272 MW (5%), and hydro 40 MW (1%). Solar is generating 0 MW — consistent with the current 100% cloud cover and 8.6°C overnight temperature. Battery output is negligible at 0.1 MW. Renewable penetration stands at 6.14%, the lowest point recorded across today's carbon history, which peaked at 25.4% around 17:30 AEST when wind generation was more active. Carbon intensity is 1.0717 tCO2/MWh, up materially from the daily low of 0.838 tCO2/MWh recorded at the same 17:30 AEST interval, reflecting the current near-total absence of wind and solar output.

Predispatch forecasts point to prices lifting from the current $141/MWh at 07:00 AEST, climbing through $162–$178/MWh across 08:30–10:00 AEST, then reaching a forecast high of $218.69/MWh at 09:30 AEST before easing back through the mid-morning. A secondary step-down is expected through the 11:00–13:00 AEST window as demand retreats on the Saturday pattern, with prices forecast to settle in the $110–$143/MWh range through early afternoon and then fall further into the $84–$99/MWh band from 16:00–18:00 AEST. The lowest-cost window for flexible load sits between 04:00–06:00 AEST (12:00–14:00 UTC), where predispatch has prices averaging around $94–$100/MWh — saving approximately $118–$124/MWh against today's peak.

One active market notice is directly relevant to VIC1: a non-conformance was declared for unit WKIEWA1 (a wind generator) for a 29 MW deviation during a five-minute interval at 02:05–02:10 AEST, with constraint NC-V\_WKIEWA1 invoked. This is a minor and resolved event. Two upcoming MarketNet maintenance windows are also active — brief 1–3 second service disruptions to AEMO's Sydney-connected infrastructure are scheduled for 6 July (16:00–04:00 AEST) and Brisbane-connected infrastructure for