Regional Outlook — VIC1: Sunday 28 June 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $51.42/MWh at 06:25 AEST, demand at 5,805 MW — a marked retreat from the morning peak that pushed prices above $110/MWh between 17:00 and 18:30 AEST, with demand touching 7,186 MW at 17:55 AEST. Overnight prices were largely anchored in the $60–68/MWh range before the winter morning ramp drove sustained triple-digit pricing across the 06:00–08:00 AEST window. The 24-hour price arc has been textbook winter demand: overnight floor, sharp morning peak, midday solar-assisted softening to $11.67/MWh across the 23:00–01:00 AEST window, then a recovery ramp now underway as the evening peak approaches.
The generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows brown coal carrying 3,965 MW, wind contributing 2,441 MW, gas OCGT at 120 MW, batteries at 88 MW, and hydro at 53 MW. Solar is at zero, consistent with winter pre-dawn. Total renewable penetration sits at 38.73%, driven entirely by wind. Carbon intensity is 0.7372 tCO2/MWh, down materially from 0.95 tCO2/MWh recorded during last night's evening peak when wind output was lower and demand was higher — the day's carbon profile has improved as wind generation has ramped. Today's weather outlook reinforces a wind-heavy day: average wind potential scores 6/10 against 91% cloud cover, meaning solar contribution will remain negligible throughout.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firm evening ramp. Prices are forecast to climb from current levels to $83–84/MWh by 07:00–08:00 AEST, hold there through 08:30 AEST, then ease back through the $62–40/MWh range across 09:00–10:30 AEST as overnight demand recedes. The deep-trough window returns from approximately 11:30 AEST through to 04:00 AEST tomorrow, with predispatch showing $11.67–10.50/MWh across that stretch — consistent with the pattern seen across the midday and afternoon today. The lowest-cost load windows are forecast at 15:00–16:00 AEST (10.50/MWh) and 11:30–02:30 AEST ($11.67/MWh), saving approximately $73/MWh against the forecast evening peak. Traders positioning for the morning ramp should note the 07:00 AEST step-up is forecast to be softer than this morning's, with a ceiling near $84/MWh rather than the $111/MWh touched at 06:25 AEST today.
On market notices, no active notices directly constrain VIC1 at this time. The VIC1 non-conformance for unit WKIEWA1 (29 MW, 26 June) is dated and resolved. More pertinent to Victorian participants is the series of active SA LOR1 reserve notices covering 3–5 July, flagging reserve shortfalls of 30–52 MW in SA across multiple periods — this has the potential to tighten the V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 interconnectors and influence VIC1