Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 8 July 2026

Victoria's spot price sits at $129.10/MWh at 06:25 AEST, down from a volatile overnight and morning session that saw extreme spikes to $19,069.69/MWh at 09:40 and a $10,569.46/MWh print five minutes earlier. Demand has climbed to 7,011 MW as the morning ramp builds, well above the overnight trough of 5,394 MW recorded around 04:15. The past 24 hours have swung from a low near $96/MWh in the evening lull to repeated $500-1,300+/MWh excursions through the 07:00-11:00 window, indicating tight reserve margins during the morning peak before easing back into the $100-190/MWh band through midday and afternoon.

Generation mix at 06:00 AEST shows brown coal dominating supply at 4,738.63 MW, with gas OCGT contributing 795.58 MW, wind at 215.4 MW, hydro at 46.89 MW, and battery output minimal at 3.49 MW. Solar is at 0 MW given the pre-dawn hour and heavy 100% cloud cover currently blanketing the region. Renewable penetration sits at just 4.58%, the lowest point in the past 24-hour cycle, down from a peak of 27.18% recorded around 00:30 AEST when wind generation was stronger. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 1.0859 tCO2/MWh, up from 0.8213 tCO2/MWh overnight, tracking the inverse relationship between renewable output and emissions intensity through the period.

Predispatch forecasts point to a bumpy evening and overnight session: prices are expected to climb to $257/MWh by 21:00 AEST, spike to $479/MWh around 22:30, then ease to $260/MWh by midnight before falling into the $97-140/MWh range through the early hours of 9 July. A second demand-driven price surge is forecast for tomorrow's morning peak, with predispatch showing $271-329/MWh from 07:00-08:30 AEST and a sustained $270-315/MWh band through midday trade. Weather outlook supports this pattern — solar potential remains capped at 6% tomorrow under continued cloud cover, with wind potential negligible at 0.1, meaning renewable contribution is likely to stay thin through the coming 24 hours. Optimal load-shifting windows sit between 01:30-06:30 AEST t