Regional Outlook — VIC1: Tuesday 30 June 2026

The spot price sits at $10.50/MWh at 06:25 AEST, a sharp reversal from the elevated conditions that dominated the overnight period, where prices ran persistently between $150–$250/MWh from approximately 23:00 to 08:30 AEST. Total demand is 5,499 MW, well down from the overnight peak of around 7,600 MW as the morning commercial load ramp has yet to fully materialise. The 24-hour price arc tells a clear story: overnight tightness driven by peak winter heating demand gave way to a sustained collapse through the mid-morning and afternoon, with prices touching $0/MWh and briefly negative from around 04:30 AEST onwards as daytime demand fell away.

The current generation mix is led by wind at 3,200 MW and brown coal at 2,970 MW, with hydro contributing 50 MW, gas OCGT at 8 MW, battery at 6 MW, and solar at zero — consistent with pre-dawn conditions. Renewable penetration sits at 52.2%, reflecting strong wind output against a relatively modest demand figure. Carbon intensity is 0.582 tCO2/MWh, down substantially from the overnight high of around 0.948 tCO2/MWh recorded during the peak demand window when the brown coal share of a much larger dispatch stack was proportionally higher. The trajectory through the day has been a steady carbon intensity improvement, tracking the declining demand and sustained wind generation.

Predispatch forecasts indicate prices remain near floor levels — largely at $10.50/MWh or below — through to approximately 07:30 AEST, with a brief lift into the $58–$74/MWh range between 07:30 and 09:00 AEST as the morning demand ramp is priced in. Prices then ease back through the $20–$35/MWh range before returning to near-zero and negative territory from around 13:00 AEST onwards, with the forecast reaching -$7.47/MWh at 17:30 AEST. This negative price window aligns with expected wind generation against low mid-afternoon winter demand — a pattern consistent with recent days. Today's weather reinforces this outlook: maximum temperature of 15.4°C, 90% cloud cover, negligible solar potential, and an average wind potential score of 10.8 — the strongest wind day in the seven-day outlook.

One active market notice is directly relevant to VIC1: a non-conformance was declared against unit WKIEWA1 in the VIC1 region for the period 12:15–12:25 AEST on 30 June (24 MW over-dispatch, constraint NC-V_WKIEWA1), though this event has passed without ongoing dispatch impact. Separately, AEMO has issued multiple active Forecast LOR2 notices for the SA region on 3 July 2026 (07:30–11:00 AEST, with minimum reserve available as low as 625 MW against a requirement of 758–768 MW); while these notices are SA-focused, interconnector flows on V-SA and V-S-MNSP1 may affect Victorian dispatch conditions on Friday if AEMO intervention is required. Traders and grid engineers with exposure to the VIC–SA interconnector should monitor SA reserve developments closely heading into the weekend.