Regional Outlook — VIC1: Wednesday 15 July 2026
Victoria's spot price sits at $119.05/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,381 MW. Prices have been volatile overnight, spiking to $190.47/MWh around 17:20 AEST yesterday during the morning demand ramp and touching lows near $38/MWh in the early hours around 11:00 AEST. The current level sits mid-range against yesterday's trading band of roughly $38-$190/MWh, tracking above the overnight trough as demand builds through the morning period.
Generation mix is dominated by brown coal at 4,572 MW, accounting for the large majority of supply. Gas OCGT contributes 472 MW, wind 553 MW, hydro 47 MW, and battery output sits at 40 MW. Solar generation reads 0 MW, consistent with pre-dawn conditions and heavy cloud cover (98%) currently over the region. Renewable penetration is 11.25%, down from levels above 30% seen through yesterday evening as wind generation has eased and rooftop/utility solar has yet to come online. Carbon intensity is elevated at 1.0354 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the coal-heavy mix at this time of day — this is near the top of the range seen over the past 24 hours, which troughed around 0.74 tCO2/MWh during periods of stronger wind output overnight.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation ahead. The 07:30 AEST interval is forecast at $503.18/MWh, with further spikes to $455.38/MWh at 10:00 AEST and $462.82/MWh at 12:00 AEST, indicating tight supply-demand balance through the morning and midday periods. Prices are forecast to ease into the afternoon, with the 14:00-18:00 AEST window trending back toward $83-$156/MWh. Traders with exposure to the 07:30-13:30 AEST window should note this significant forecast volatility. Overnight, load-shifting windows show favourable pricing between 01:30 and 06:30 AEST tomorrow, with average prices of $76-$106/MWh and savings of up to $427/MWh versus the peak.
No VIC-specific market notices are currently active. Relevant NEM-wide items include a resolved QLD intervention event (cancelled from 14:10 on 15 July) and an active negative settlement residue constraint on the VIC-SA interconnector from 13 July