Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 17 July 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $99.03/MWh at 06:30 AEST (interval ending 20:30 UTC), with demand at 1,098 MW. This follows an overnight trough where prices fell as low as $20.41/MWh around 05:10 UTC (15:10 AEST yesterday) as demand dropped below 1,200 MW, before climbing back through the $100-140/MWh band during this morning's demand ramp — a brief spike to $140.34/MWh occurred at 06:55 UTC as demand crossed 1,330 MW. The 24-hour range of roughly $20-140/MWh reflects Tasmania's typical pattern of low overnight minimums and morning/evening peaks tracking hydro dispatch decisions.
Generation mix is hydro-dominant: hydro is contributing 974 MW, wind 261 MW, and gas OCGT 208 MW, for total generation around 1,444 MW against 1,098 MW demand — the surplus reflects export flows to Victoria via Basslink. Renewable penetration sits at 85.57%, consistent with Tasmania's typical near-90% range, with carbon intensity at 0.0938 tCO2/MWh. Carbon intensity has ranged between 0.054 and 0.102 tCO2/MWh over the past 24 hours, tracking inversely with renewable share — the lowest intensity readings (0.054-0.060 tCO2/MWh, 90-92% renewables) came overnight when hydro and wind covered nearly all load, while intensity rose toward 0.095-0.102 tCO2/MWh during afternoon peak demand when gas OCGT ran harder.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing through this evening, with $97-111/MWh expected across the 21:00-22:30 UTC window before falling sharply overnight — forecast lows of $35-41/MWh between 00:00 and 05:30 UTC tomorrow, mirroring today's overnight pattern. Prices are then forecast to climb again through tomorrow morning, reaching $102-115/MWh by 08:00-12:00 UTC as demand ramps. Five low-price windows are flagged for load-shifting tomorrow between 01:00 and 06:30 UTC, each offering savings of $73-79/MWh versus peak pricing, with average prices of $36-42/MWh.
On market notices, TAS1 has seen a run of light